Chapter 7, Problem 29QP

Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)

Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS An ecommerce company decides to send a gift voucher worth $1000 to a set of customers they believe would make a purchase of at least $5000. They develop a model to identify potential customers who can make a purchase of $5000 if we send the $1000 voucher. Which of the following is more critical about the model? O False negative is worse than False positive if voucher amount crosses $5000 O Both False positive and negative are acceptable O False positive is worse than a False negative O False negative is worse than a False positive Which of the following statements is TRUE? O Tree based models are normally not affected by outliers O Presence of outliers in the data has no effect on Regression models O Standard scaler performs well on features that have outliers O Tree-based models do not rely on dividing the feature space into sub-sections

Arçelik Refrigerator Production Inc. manufactures various types of refrigerators. Currently, it has produced the AA-No Frost type refrigerator and wants to do a research on its market value. The company identified its 6-person expert housewife customer and requested the valuation of the AA-No Frost refrigerator. These customers use a similar type of General Electric refrigerator, and the General Electric refrigerator value is -0.5352 in the valuation of this refrigerator. Values ​​are determined out of 1000. According to this information, what is the value of the AA-No Frost refrigerator? What does it mean when compared to General Electric?

Randolph College and Salem College are within 20 milesof each other, and the students at each college frequentlydate. The students at Randolph College are debating howgood their dates are at Salem College. The Randolphstudents have sampled several hundred of their fellowstudents and asked them to rate their dates from 1 to 5(where 1 is excellent and 5 is poor) according to physicalattractiveness, intelligence, and personality. Following arethe resulting probability distributions for these three traits:

A purchasing agent for a particular type of silicon wafer used in the production ofsemiconductors must decide among three sources. Source A will sell the siliconwafers for $2.50 per wafer, independently of the number of wafers ordered. Source Bwill sell the wafers for $2.40 each but will not consider an order for fewer than3,000 wafers, and Source C will sell the wafers for $2.30 each but will not acceptan order for fewer than 4,000 wafers. Assume an order setup cost of $100 and anannual requirement of 20,000 wafers. Assume a 20 percent annual interest rate forholding cost calculations.b. What is the optimal value of the holding and setup costs for wafers when theoptimal source is used?

A purchasing agent for a particular type of silicon wafer used in the production ofsemiconductors must decide among three sources. Source A will sell the siliconwafers for $2.50 per wafer, independently of the number of wafers ordered. Source Bwill sell the wafers for $2.40 each but will not consider an order for fewer than3,000 wafers, and Source C will sell the wafers for $2.30 each but will not acceptan order for fewer than 4,000 wafers. Assume an order setup cost of $100 and anannual requirement of 20,000 wafers. Assume a 20 percent annual interest rate forholding cost calculations.a. Which source should be used, and what is the size of the standing order?

Rajan wanted a radio from Jacky's. It appears that Rajan is particularly interested in purchasing a Radio from the inexpensive retailer's sales manager for consumer electronics. He tells Jacky, the salesperson at the inexpensive store where he thinks he'll get the best deal, that his old radio died and he wants to listen to his favourite tunes. He wants a replacement radio as quickly as possible. In three and a half weeks, Rajan's favourite model will be 10% off.He suspects Rajan won't wait and will find another job. Jacky will earn less on the lowered price. He thinks that telling Rajan of the sale makes little sense.When Jacky tells Rajan that the radio set he wants is no longer available and won't be for another week, Rajan is enraged. Fearing losing the business, Jacky begs his sales manager, Michelle, to speed up delivery. Michelle says it's impossible and suggests Jacky tell Rajan the store can get the set in 24 hours and sell him the demo model. Michelle says the sample is new…

Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather. At the resort, his profit will be $ 120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather. what decision is recommended by the expected value criterion?