Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Practical Introduction To Business Analytics, Loose-leaf Version
8th Edition
ISBN: 9781337274852
Author: Ragsdale, Cliff
Publisher: South-Western College Pub
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The National Revenue Authority (NRA), is charged with the collection of tax revenues for the National Treasury. Each year they are given a target to achieve. However, from past experience the Authority has realized the actual collections achieved is dependent on the performance of the economy. This has gotten the Commissioner worried to such an extent that he has summoned a meeting of all the Unit Directors to consider how well to incorporate this uncertainty into the Authority’s decision making and planning. Being the Director of Planning, you have been tasked with the guidance of the whole team.
Required:
a) Advise on the procedure generally followed in the decision making process.
b) Explain clearly the key activities involved in the risk assessment process.
c) Comment on the relationship between decision making and risk analysis.
d) Briefly explain the characteristics of the main decision types and which one would be more at play in this situation.
The table below shows the quarterly sales of television set (in thousands) in an electrical appliance shop in
years 2017-2019.
Year
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
2017
4.8
4.1
6.0
6.5
2018
5.8
5.2
6.8
7.4
2019
6.
5.6
7,5
7.8
(a) Describe the trend and seasonal variation of the sales of television set
by referring to the following time
series plot. (In a short paragraph of around 30 words.)
Sales of Television Set (1000s)
2
3
5
8
9
10
11
12
Time: (2017 Quarter 1 to 2019 Quarter 4)
(b) Calculate the seasonal variation for Quarter 1, Quarter 2, Quarter 3, and Quarter 4 respectively by using
the calculated 4-quarter moving average as below.
Year
Quarter
Sales
Centered Moving
(1000)
Average (1000)
2017
5.475
2017
4
6.5
5.7375
2018
1
5.8
5.975
2018
2
5.2
6.1875
2018
3
6.8
6.325
2018
7.4
6.4
2019
1
6
6.5375
2019
2
5.6
6.675
TTTT"
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- Sales for the past 12 months at computer success are given here: January 3,000 July 6,300 february 3,400 August 7,200 March 3,700 Sept 6,400 April 4,100 Oct 4,600 May 4,700 Nov 4,200 June 5,700 December 3,900 a. Use a 3-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December b. Use a 4-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December C. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?arrow_forwardSolve the problem using the answer sheet (Problem 1) SOLVE STEP BY STEP PLEASEarrow_forwardThe table below summarizes September 20223 financial performance by two market segments. The dates highlighted in orange indicate occupancy higher than 90% Please find the correct statement about the data analysis based on the table. Market segment 1 shows pattern of peak on Weekdays. Market segment 2 shows a pattern of peak on Weekends. Based on the demand pattern, Market Segment 2 could be leisure travelers. Most guests in the market segment 2 are less price sensitive than those in the market segment 1.arrow_forward
- The article "New Product Blockbusters: The Magic And Science Of Prediction Markets" by Teck-Hua Ho and Kay-Yut Chen discusses the use of prediction markets to forecast the success of new products. The authors argue that prediction markets, which allow participants to buy and sell shares in the outcome of an event, can provide more accurate predictions than traditional methods such as surveys or expert opinions. The authors first explain the principles behind prediction markets and how they can be used to predict the success of new products. They then present several case studies where prediction markets were used to forecast the success of new products, including a video game, a movie, and a new flavor of soda. The authors found that prediction markets were consistently more accurate than traditional methods in predicting the success of new products. They also found that prediction markets could be used to identify potential issues with new products before they are launched, allowing…arrow_forwardSolve it using a spreadsheet on excel.arrow_forward9arrow_forward
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