MindTap Business Statistics for Ragsdale's Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, 8th Edition, [Instant Access], 2 terms (12 months)
8th Edition
ISBN: 9781337274876
Author: Cliff Ragsdale
Publisher: Cengage Learning US
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5. The manager of a fast-food restaurant featuring hamburgers is adding salads to the menu. If they choose to include a salad bar (i.e., the MAKE option), it will cost $14,000 in annual fixed costs for the leased equipment and added employee, and $1 per salad variable cost. If they choose to have pre-made salads (i.e., the BUY option), it will cost $3 per salad. The manager expects to sell 7,500 salads per year. What is the make or buy quantity (i.e., the breakeven point between making vs. buying)?
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- Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.arrow_forwardThe model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding predictions, good and bad. Modify the decision tree by allowing three outcomes and three predictions: good, fair, and bad. You can change the inputs to the model (monetary values and probabilities) in any reasonable way you like. Then you will also have to modify the Bayes rule calculations. You can decide whether it is easier to modify the existing tree or start from scratch with a new tree.arrow_forwardConsider the following card game. The player and dealer each receive a card from a 52-card deck. At the end of the game the player with the highest card wins; a tie goes to the dealer. (You can assume that Aces count 1, Jacks 11, Queens 12, and Kings 13.) After the player receives his card, he keeps the card if it is 7 or higher. If the player does not keep the card, the player and dealer swap cards. Then the dealer keeps his current card (which might be the players original card) if it is 9 or higher. If the dealer does not keep his card, he draws another card. Use simulation with at least 1000 iterations to estimate the probability that the player wins. (Hint: See the file Sampling Without Replacement.xlsx, one of the example files, to see a clever way of simulating cards from a deck so that the Same card is never dealt more than once.)arrow_forward
- It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.arrow_forwardThe Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.arrow_forwardYou now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.arrow_forward
- Problem #4 - Jasper Inc. would like you to provide consulting services and provide recommendation on building a new assembly facility for air conditioning units in Florida. Jasper's initial assessment indicates the following conditions for this decision-making problem: With a favorable market in Florida, Jasper thinks that a large facility would result in a net profit of $200,000 to his firm. If the market is unfavorable in Florida, the construction of a large facility would result in $190,000 net loss. - A small facility would result in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, but a net loss of $20,000 would occur if the market was unfavorable. Doing nothing would result in $0 profit in either market conditions. a) Create a decision table for this problem. b) What is your recommendation if y would apply the Maximax criterion (Optimistic)? C What is your recommendation if you would apply the Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz Criterion) with a erricient of realism a = 0.9? d) What is…arrow_forwardA4 Answer b&carrow_forwardapply appropriate techniques to solve a range of models of mathematical and real-world problems analyse the effects of changing model parameters on LP model predictions * select and develop appropriate mathematical models for decision making problems (a) A stationary supplies company wishes to produce deluxe and budget ink pens. Deluxe ink pens require eight units of material and 9 minutes to produce each pen. Budget ink pens require six units of material and 4 minutes to produce each pen. The company has 38.25 hours of labour and 1950 units of material available per week. Profit for deluxe ink pens is $2.40 per pen and for budget ink pens is $1.75 per pen. The company also wants the number of deluxe ink pens to be produced to be at least 6 times the number of budget ink pens produced. Formulate a Linear Programming problem to determine the company's best production plan to maximise profit (do not solve). (b) Solve the following Linear Programming problem using the Simplex Method. Full…arrow_forward
- (see attached image, kindly answer it based on your knowledge, thank you!)arrow_forwardProblem 16-15 (Algorithmic) Strassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property it can then be sold for $160,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $150,000. Develop a worksheet that can be used to simulate the bids made by the two competitors. Strassel is considering a bid of $130,000 for the property. Using a simulation of 1000 trials, what is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of $130,000? Round your answer to 1 decimal place.…arrow_forwardWhat is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…arrow_forward
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