EP INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY+STAT.
14th Edition
ISBN: 2810019974203
Author: Mendenhall
Publisher: CENGAGE L
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In a study on speed control, it was found that the main reasons for regulations were to make traffic flow efficient and to minimize the risk of danger. An area that was focused on in the study was the distance required to completely stop a vehicle at various speeds. Use the following table to answer the questions.
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
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- 1. Sampling Distribution and the Central Limit Theorem A company produces batteries with a mean lifetime of 300 hours and a standard deviation of 50 hours. The lifetimes are not normally distributed—they are right-skewed due to some batteries lasting unusually long. Suppose a quality control analyst selects a random sample of 64 batteries from a large production batch. Questions: a) Explain whether the distribution of sample means will be approximately normal. Justify your answer using the Central Limit Theorem. b) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. c) What is the probability that the sample mean lifetime of the 64 batteries exceeds 310 hours? d) Discuss how the sample size affects the shape and variability of the sampling distribution.arrow_forwardA biologist is investigating the effect of potential plant hormones by treating 20 stem segments. At the end of the observation period he computes the following length averages: Compound X = 1.18 Compound Y = 1.17 Based on these mean values he concludes that there are no treatment differences. 1) Are you satisfied with his conclusion? Why or why not? 2) If he asked you for help in analyzing these data, what statistical method would you suggest that he use to come to a meaningful conclusion about his data and why? 3) Are there any other questions you would ask him regarding his experiment, data collection, and analysis methods?arrow_forwardBusinessarrow_forward
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