Chapter 14, Problem 31QP

Sales for the past 12 months at computer success are given here: January 3,000      July 6,300 february 3,400      August 7,200 March 3,700         Sept 6,400 April 4,100            Oct 4,600 May 4,700            Nov 4,200 June 5,700           December 3,900 a. Use a 3-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December b. Use a 4-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December C. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?

The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last four years are as follows: Year 3 117.6 Quarter Year 1 101.6 Year 4 101.5 Year 2 94.2 112.7 143.3 2 127.3 146.6 143.4 167.7 182.4 132.9 3 159.3 168.5 153.7 169.0 The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 689 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places.) The first quarter forecast is MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

The following are sales revenues for a large utility company for years 1 through 11. Forecast revenue for years 12 through 15. Because we are forecasting four years into the future, you will need to use linear regression as your forecasting method.

The president of a small chain of women’s clothing stores was concerned about a four-year trend of decreasing profits. The stores have been characterized as being rather conservative over the years with respect to their product line, store decor, and advertising. They have consistently avoided trendy clothes, for example. Their market is now becoming extremely competitive because several aggressive fashion stores are expanding and are aiming at the young, fashion-conscious buyer. As a result of this competition and the disappointing profit trend, the president is considering making the product line appear less conservative and more oriented toward the young buyer. Before making such a risky change, the president feels it prudent to conduct some marketing research to learn the exact status of his chain. What should be the research purpose? Compose a set of research questions that would be helpful.

Below is a table that shows the Freshmen Enrollment of the New Texas Elementary School during the 1a Semesters of the past ten (10) Academic Years (AY), AY 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-02017 2017-2018 Freshmen Enrollees AY 200 220 235 270 315 4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use: a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data; a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data. You are the Principal of New Texas Elementary School. You are interested to know the forecast of freshmen enrolment for the next academic year (AY2023-2024), in order to plan ahead the necessary resources: faculty, classroom, library holdings, physical facilities, student services, furniture and fixtures, etc.). These are the requirements: AT 2013-2014 1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naïve Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression. Follow and…

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Consider the following time series data. Choose the correct time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.  = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using  Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient  that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for  = 0.2. Find a value of  for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.

GreenLawns provides a lawn fertilizer and weed control service. The company is adding a special aeration treatment as a low-cost extra service option, which it hopes will help attract new customers. Management is planning to promote this new service in two media: radio and direct-mail advertising. A media budget of $2,500 is available for this promotional campaign. Based on past experience in promoting its other services, GreenLawns obtained the following estimate of the relationship between sales and the amount spent on promotion in these two media. S = −2R2 − 10M2 − 8RM + 18R + 34M where S = total sales in thousands of dollars R = thousands of dollars spent on radio advertising M = thousands of dollars spent on direct-mail advertising. GreenLawns would like to develop a promotional strategy that will lead to maximum sales subject to the restriction provided by the media budget. (a) What is the value of sales (in dollars) if $1,500 is spent on radio advertising and $1,000 is…

The following are sales revenues for a large utility company for years 1 through 11. Forecast revenue for years 12 through 15. Because we are forecasting four years into the future, you will need to use linear regression as your forecasting method. Note: Enter your answers in millions. YEAR 1 2345 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Period 12 13 14 15 REVENUE (MILLIONS) $4,865.7 5,072.3 5,507.7 5,738.2 5,495.4 5,198.7 5,087.0 5,111.5 5,559.7 5,740.4 5,868.4 Forecast