You work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon- itoring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore dollars), yt, t = 1990.1, .., 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption trend model, y = Bo + BITIME, + E1, where e, ~ iidN(0, o²), obtain- ing the estimates Bo = 0.51, 31 estimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density 2.30, and ô? 16. Based upon your forecasts for 2010.1. | Find the exact value of the point forecast at 2010.01.

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You work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon-
itoring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of
quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore
dollars), yt, t = 1990.1, .., 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption
trend model, Y = Bo + B1TIME + E1, where ɛ ~ iidN(0, o²), obtain-
ing the estimates Bo = 0.51, B1
2.30, and ô? = 16. Based upon your
estimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density
forecasts for 2010.1.
- Find the exact value of the point forecast at 2010.01.
· Provide the distribution of the density forecast at 2010.01.
: Provide interval forecasts for 68% and 90% confidence levels.
Transcribed Image Text:You work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon- itoring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore dollars), yt, t = 1990.1, .., 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption trend model, Y = Bo + B1TIME + E1, where ɛ ~ iidN(0, o²), obtain- ing the estimates Bo = 0.51, B1 2.30, and ô? = 16. Based upon your estimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density forecasts for 2010.1. - Find the exact value of the point forecast at 2010.01. · Provide the distribution of the density forecast at 2010.01. : Provide interval forecasts for 68% and 90% confidence levels.
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