Akwasi is considering investing in either Real Estate or Shopping mall, a market survey revealed the following returns with their respective business cycle which have been estimated occur evenly during the year. Business Cycle     Probability                           Returns                                                          Real Estate          Shopping mall Boom                        20%                        13%                  16% Recession                  25%                        4%                     8% Normal                      25%                        12%

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Akwasi is considering investing in either Real Estate or Shopping mall, a market survey revealed the following returns with their respective business cycle which have been estimated occur evenly during the year.
Business Cycle     Probability                           Returns
                                                         Real Estate          Shopping mall
Boom                        20%                        13%                  16%
Recession                  25%                        4%                     8%
Normal                      25%                        12%                  14%
Depression                30%                         -5%                   1%


Which one will you advise him to choose and why?

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