4. Adaptive and Rational Expectations a. Suppose you are in the Adaptive Expectations world. Using the following values calculate the first five forecasts (up to the forecast for inflation in year t+5) of expected inflation. The natural rate of inflation is 1%, last year's expectation of this year's inflation is 1%, however just this year's realized inflation was 3%. Assume the error adjustment coefficient is equal to 0.8.

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4. Adaptive and Rational Expectations
a. Suppose you are in the Adaptive Expectations world. Using the following values
calculate the first five forecasts (up to the forecast for inflation in year t+5) of
expected inflation. The natural rate of inflation is 1%, last year's expectation of
this year's inflation is 1%, however just this year's realized inflation was 3%.
Assume the error adjustment coefficient is equal to 0.8.
b. Repeat part (a) except now use a lambda value of 1.1. What is the key difference
you notice between the evolution of inflation forecasts of part (a) and (b)?
c. Suppose you are in the Rational Expectations world. There has been a
breakthrough in the semiconductor industry, making future computing both
cheaper and faster for firms. What should happen to the price and quantity in the
corporate bond market? Explain using rational expectations theory.
Transcribed Image Text:4. Adaptive and Rational Expectations a. Suppose you are in the Adaptive Expectations world. Using the following values calculate the first five forecasts (up to the forecast for inflation in year t+5) of expected inflation. The natural rate of inflation is 1%, last year's expectation of this year's inflation is 1%, however just this year's realized inflation was 3%. Assume the error adjustment coefficient is equal to 0.8. b. Repeat part (a) except now use a lambda value of 1.1. What is the key difference you notice between the evolution of inflation forecasts of part (a) and (b)? c. Suppose you are in the Rational Expectations world. There has been a breakthrough in the semiconductor industry, making future computing both cheaper and faster for firms. What should happen to the price and quantity in the corporate bond market? Explain using rational expectations theory.
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