WK4Assgn_Beal_R

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Feb 20, 2024

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1 Confidence Interval of a Continuous Variable Roswell Beal PhD of Science in Public Policy and Administration, Walden University Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis Professor Olivia Yu December 24th, 2023

2 Confidence Interval The data set used is the Afrobarometer dataset and the continuous variable is Q1 age of respondents. Below is the visual display table that shows confidence levels of 90 and 95%. The true sample population mean with a confidence level of 90% is located by using this formula 37.17 ± 0.2, and similarly is located at a 95% confidence level with 37.17 ± 0.24. Confidence intervals are defined by the confidence level and as the level changes from 90% to 95%, the range of values where the population parameter may fall is more accurate (Frankfort-Nachmias et. al., 2020). This means that the probability of the interval including the population parameter is increased as the confidence level is raised to reflect the likelihood of such and at the same time decreases the margin of error (Frankfort-Nachmias et. al., 2020). The margin of error for 90% confidence level is 10% and 5% for a CL of 95%. The margin of error is used to highlight what percentage of possibility there is for the interval to be incorrect (Frankfort-Nachmias et. al., 2020). Confidence Interval of Q1 Age Confidence Level Population Mean of Age (Sample mean ± Confidence Interval) 90% 37.17 ± 0.2 95% 37.17 ± 0.24

3 Social Change Implication The implication for social change based on the results of confidence intervals include the ability to assess large amounts of information in a study, which can be difficult to analyze and interpret in a study (Crutzen et. al., 2017). The ability to calculate confidence intervals at a 99% confidence level reduces the margin of error which is useful in a wide range of studies associated with social issues (Crutzen et. al., 2017). An example of this is a study of social-cognitive determinants for behavior change interventions that utilize CI to analyze which determinants hold the most utility or ability to alter a person's harmful behavior or actions as a means of intervention practices by qualified professionals (Crutzen et. al., 2017). In this example, is it important to point out that the output or findings of the study is still highly dependent on the quality of the study itself and how the survey and questions are formulated, which will in turn affect the confidence intervals, confidence level and the margin of error (Crutzen et. al., 2017).

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4 References Crutzen, R., Peters, G. Y., & Noijen, J. (2017). Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions. Frontiers in public health, 5, 165. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00165 Frankfort-Nachmias, C., Leon-Guerrero, A., & Davis, G. (2020). Social statistics for a diverse society (9th ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

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