2022W2_MATH_101A_ALL_2022W2.QTPX6H182J03.WW11

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Gyan Edbert Zesiro 2022W2 MATH 101A ALL 2022W2 Assignment WW11 due 04/13/2023 at 11:59pm PDT Problem 1. (1 point) This assignment is not for marks. It is intended to help you practice topics appearing at the end of the course (more Tay- lor series and Probabilty) as you study for the final exam. Evaluate the given limit. lim x 0 log ( 1 - x )+ x + x 2 2 4 x 3 = Answer(s) submitted: - 1 12 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: • - 0 . 0833333333333333 Problem 2. (1 point) Decide if the following series converges. If it does, enter the ex- act value for its sum (not a decimal approximation); if not, enter either ”Diverges” or ”D”. S = n = 0 ( - 1 ) n 2 n + 1 1 3 2 n + 1 Answer: Answer(s) submitted: tan - 1 1 3 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: tan - 1 1 3 Problem 3. (1 point) Let F ( x ) = Z x 0 e - 2 t 4 dt . (a) Find the Maclaurin series for F ( x ) . Then enter the polynomial obtained by discarding all terms involving x n for n > 9. Answer: T 9 ( x ) = (b) Find the indicated derivative: F ( 29 ) ( 0 ) = Answer(s) submitted: x - 2 5 x 5 + 2 9 x 9 ( - 2 ) 7 ( 29! ) 7! · 29 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: x - 2 x 5 5 + 2 2 x 9 18 ( - 1 ) 7 · 2 7 (( 4 · 7 ) ! ) 7! 1
Problem 4. (1 point) Find the infinite series representation, centred at x = 0, of the im- proper integral f ( x ) = Z x 0 sin ( 5 t ) 2 t dt . Enter the first five non-zero terms, in order of increasing degree. Answer: f ( x ) = + + + + + ··· What is the radius of convergence? Answer: R = Answer(s) submitted: 5 x 2 - 5 3 x 3 2 · ( 3! ) · 3 5 5 x 5 2 · ( 5! ) · 5 - 5 7 x 7 2 · ( 7! ) · 7 5 9 x 9 2 · ( 9! ) · 9 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 1 2 · 5 x • - 1 2 1 3 · ( 3! ) · 5 3 x 3 1 2 1 5 · ( 5! ) · 5 5 x 5 • - 1 2 1 7 · ( 7! ) · 5 7 x 7 1 2 1 9 · ( 9! ) · 5 9 x 9 Problem 5. (1 point) Let f ( x ) = 6 x sin ( 2 x )+ px 2 24 - 24cos ( 5 x ) - 300 x 2 . (a) Find the one and only value of the constant p for which lim x 0 f ( x ) exists. Answer: p = (b) Using the value of p found in part (a) , evaluate the limit. Answer: lim x 0 f ( x ) = Answer(s) submitted: • - 12 8 625 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: • - 6 · 2 2 3 5 4 Problem 6. (1 point) Evaluate the indicated limit. lim x 0 ( 1 + 4 x + 4 x 2 ) 1 / x = Answer(s) submitted: e 4 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: exp ( 1 · 4 ) Problem 7. (1 point) Find the value of C so that the function f ( x ) = ( 0 if x < 0 Ce - 2 x if x 0 . is a probability density function. Answer(s) submitted: 2 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 2 2
Problem 8. (1 point) The probability density function for a certain random variable X is given by p ( x ) = 2 153 x if 0 x 9 2 8 - 2 136 x if 9 x 17 0 otherwise. Find the probability that X is between 8 and 10. Pr ( 8 X 10 ) = Answer(s) submitted: 1 9 + 1 4 - 19 136 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 0 . 22140522875817 Problem 9. (1 point) The probability density function for a certain random variable X is given by p ( x ) = 2 253 x if 0 x 11 2 12 - 2 276 x if 11 x 23 0 otherwise. Find the expected value of X . E ( X ) = Answer(s) submitted: 2 253 · 3 · 11 3 + 1 12 23 2 - 11 2 - 2 276 · 3 23 3 - 11 3 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 11 . 3333333333333 Problem 10. (1 point) Suppose that, after measuring the duration of many tele- phone calls, a telephone company found their data was well- approximated by the density function p ( x ) = 0 . 8 e - 0 . 8 x , where x is the duration of a call, in minutes. (a) What percentage of calls last between 2 and 3 minutes? Percent = percent (b) What percentage of calls last 2 minutes or less? Percent = percent (c) What percentage of calls last 4 minutes or more? Percent = percent Solution: SOLUTION (a) The fraction of calls lasting from 1 to 2 minutes is given by the integral Z 3 2 p ( x ) dx = Z 3 2 0 . 8 e - 0 . 8 x dx = e - 1 . 6 - e - 2 . 4 0 . 11118 , or about 11.118 percent. (b) A similar calculation (changing the limits of integration) gives the percentage of calls lasting 2 minutes or less as Z 2 0 p ( x ) dx = Z 2 0 0 . 8 e - 0 . 8 x dx = 1 - e - 1 . 6 0 . 7981 , or about 79.81 percent. (c) The percentage of calls lasting 4 minutes or more is given by the improper integral Z 4 p ( x ) dx = lim b Z b 4 0 . 8 e - 0 . 8 x dx = lim b ( e - 3 . 2 - e - 0 . 8 b ) = e - 3 . 2 0 . 04076 or about 4.076 percent. Answer(s) submitted: e - 1 . 6 - e - 2 . 4 · 100 e - 0 - e - 2 · 0 . 8 · 100 e - 0 . 8 · 4 · 100 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 100 e - 0 . 8 · 2 - e - 0 . 8 · 3 100 1 - e - 0 . 8 · 2 100 e - 0 . 8 · 4 3
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Problem 11. (1 point) The probability density function for the duration of riders’ screams on a roller coaster is given by f ( x ) = ( 1 10 π ( 1 - cos ( 8 x )) if 0 x 10 π 0 otherwise. Find the mean duration of riders’ screams over the course of the ride. The mean duration of riders’ screams is seconds. Answer(s) submitted: 5 π submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 15 . 707963267949 Problem 12. (1 point) The random variables A , B , and C have the probability density functions (PDFs) shown below. A= B= C= (Click on graph to enlarge) (a) Which random variable has the largest expected value? Enter A, B, or C: (b) Select the correct inequality: A. Var ( B ) < Var ( C ) B. Var ( B ) = Var ( C ) C. Var ( B ) > Var ( C ) Answer(s) submitted: B A submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: B A 4
Problem 13. (1 point) At a restaurant, the probability density function for T , the time a customer has to wait before being seated, is given by p ( t ) = ( 0 if t < 0 λ e - λ t if t 0 . Here t is measured in minutes, and λ = ( 1 / 8 ) min - 1 . (a) Find the probability that a customer will have to wait at least 3 minutes to be seated. Pr ( T 3 ) = . (b) What is the mean waiting time? E ( T ) = . (c) What is the variance in waiting times? Var [ T ] = . Answer(s) submitted: e - 3 8 8 64 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 0 . 687289278790972 8 64 Problem 14. (1 point) Four random variables with values in the interval [ 0 , 1 ] , named A , B , C , and D , have the probability density functions (PDFs) sketched below. A = B = C = D = (a) Which random variable has the smallest mean? [Enter A, B, C, or D.] (b) Select the correct inequality. A. Var ( B ) = Var ( C ) B. Var ( B ) < Var ( C ) C. Var ( B ) > Var ( C ) (c) Select the correct inequality. A. Var ( A ) > Var ( D ) B. Var ( A ) = Var ( D ) C. Var ( A ) < Var ( D ) Answer(s) submitted: A C C submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: A C C 5
Problem 15. (1 point) Let X be a real-valued random variable with probability density function p ( x ) = x 2 27 2 π e - 1 2 · ( x 3 ) 2 a) Let p ( x ) = a 0 + a 1 x + a 2 x 2 + ... be the Taylor explansion of p ( x ) around x = 0. Find a 0 = (0.5 points.) a 1 = (0.5 points.) a 2 = (1 point.) b) Use the Taylor approximation of degree 2 from part a) to ap- proximate the probability Pr ( 0 X 3 ) . Pr ( 0 X 3 ) (1.5 points.) Answer(s) submitted: 0 0 1 27 2 π 1 3 2 π submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 0 0 0 . 0147756400148679 0 . 132980760133811 Problem 16. (1 point) Consider a group of people who have received treatment for a dis- ease such as cancer. Let t be the survival time , the number of years a person lives after receiving treatment. The density func- tion giving the distribution of t is p ( t ) = Ce - Ct for some positive constant C . (a) The survival function, S ( t ) , is the probability that a randomly selected person survives for at least t years. Find a formula for S ( t ) . S ( t ) = (b) Suppose that a patient has a 75 percent chance of surviving at least 5 years. Find C . C = (c) Using the value of C you found in (b), find each of the follow- ing: the probability that the patient survives up to (that is, less than or equal to) 4 years: the mean survival time for patients with this survival function, in years: Solution: SOLUTION The cumulative distribution function P ( t ) = R t 0 p ( x ) dx = Area un- der graph of density function p ( x ) for 0 x t gives the fraction of the population who survive t years or less after treatment. We could also say that this is the fraction of the population who sur- vive up to t years after treatment. (a) The probability that a randomly selected person survives for at least t years is the probability that she or he lives t years or longer, so S ( t ) = Z t p ( x ) dx = lim b Z b t Ce - Cx dx = lim b - e - Cb + e - Ct = e - Ct . Note that this is the same as S ( t ) = 1 - P ( t ) . (b) The probability of surviving at least 5 years is S ( 5 ) = e - 5 C = 75 100 . Thus C = - 1 5 ln ( 0 . 75 ) . (c) The probability that a patient survives up to 4 years is just P ( 4 ) = R 4 0 p ( x ) dx = e - Cx 4 0 0 . 205582. 6
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The average survival time for patients with this survival function is Z 0 x · p ( x ) dx = lim b C ( - ( 1 + Cx ) e - Cx C 2 b 0 = lim b - ( 1 + Cb ) e - Cb C + 1 C = 1 C . Thus the average survival time is T = - 5 ln ( 0 . 75 ) 17 . 3803. Answer(s) submitted: e - Ct ln ( 0 . 75 ) - 5 1 - e - ln ( 0 . 75 ) - 5 · 4 1 ln ( 0 . 75 ) - 5 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: e - Ct • - 1 5 ln 75 100 1 - 75 100 4 5 - 5 ln 75 100 Problem 17. (1 point) The probability density function for a certain random variable X is given by this expression involving a constant C : p ( x ) = ( Cxe - 9 x , for x 0 , 0 , for x < 0 . Find C and the expected value E ( X ) . Answers: C = , E ( X ) = . Solution: We know that p ( x ) is a probability density function, so Z 0 p ( x ) dx = 1. Integration by parts shows that Z 0 Cxe - 9 x dx = C / 81. Matching this with the required value 1 gives C = 81. Further integration by parts reveals that E ( X ) = Z 0 Cx 2 e - 9 x dx = 2 9 . Answer(s) submitted: 81 2 9 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 9 2 2 9 7
Problem 18. (1 point) The probability density function for a certain random variable X is given by p ( x ) = ( Cxe - kx , for x 0 , 0 , for x < 0 . Given Var ( X ) = 1 2 , find the constants C and k . Answers: C = , k = . Solution: There are three things to know: 1 = Z 0 p ( x ) dx = C k 2 , E ( X ) = Z 0 xp ( x ) dx = 2 C k 3 , E ( X 2 ) = Z 0 x 2 p ( x ) dx = 6 C k 4 . The first fact implies C = k 2 , which we can use when enforcing 1 2 = Var ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) - ( E ( X )) 2 = 6 C k 4 - 4 C 2 k 6 = 2 k 2 . This gives k = r 2 ( 2 ) 1 , and back-substitution gives C = k 2 = 2 ( 2 ) 1 . Answer(s) submitted: 4 2 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 2 · 2 1 r 2 · 2 1 Problem 19. (1 point) Every day an experimentalist acquires a new measurement from some random variable X . The measurement from Day i is x i . On Day N , the experimentalist uses all the data gathered so far to cal- culate the following estimates for the expected value and variance of X : E N = x 1 + x 2 + ... + x N N , V N = 1 N N i = 1 ( x i - E N ) 2 . On Day 27, the experimentalist observes x 27 = 59 . 81 and looks up E 26 = 52 . 41 and V 26 = 8 . 74. Find the updated estimates of the expected value and variance. Answers: E 27 = , V 27 = . Notes: The measurement x 27 is clearly an outlier. A serious exper- imentalist would deal with this in ways beyond the scope of this question. They would probably also use the “sample variance” instead of the V N defined here. A preliminary observation that may help mimics one that was shown in class: for every N , V N = 1 N N i = 1 ( x i - E N ) 2 = ··· = 1 N N i = 1 x 2 i ! - E 2 N . Solution: This is a simple algebra problem wrapped up in ex- perimental terminology. Rearranging the given definitions gives N i = 1 x i = NE N , N i = 1 x 2 i = N ( V N + E 2 N ) . This works for every N . That makes it possible to find the recur- rence identities N + 1 i = 1 x i = NE N + x N + 1 , N + 1 i = 1 x 2 i = N ( V N + E 2 N )+ x 2 N + 1 . The problem setup gives N , E N , V N , and x N + 1 , so we have enough to finish. Answer(s) submitted: 52 . 41 + 59 . 81 - 52 . 41 27 ( 8 . 74 + 52 . 41 2 ) · 26 + 59 . 81 2 27 - 52 . 41 + 59 . 81 - 52 . 41 27 2 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 26 · 52 . 41 + 59 . 81 27 26 · ( 8 . 74 + 52 . 41 2 ) + 59 . 81 2 27 - 26 · 52 . 41 + 59 . 81 27 2 8
Problem 20. (1 point) Background: The probability density function for a normally dis- tributed random variable with mean μ and variance σ 2 is p ( x ) = 1 σ 2 π e - ( x - μ ) 2 2 σ 2 , x R . The special choices μ = 0 and σ 2 = 1 2 are used to define the error function , a standard tool in spreadsheets and scientific packages: erf ( x ) = 2 π Z x 0 e - t 2 dt . So for non-negative x , erf ( x ) gives the probability that such a ran- dom variable falls in the interval [ - x , x ] . Problem: Suppose * that the height of Canadian women is a nor- mally distributed random variable with mean μ = 162 . 9cm and variance σ 2 = 23 . 9cm 2 . Find positive numbers a and b that satisfy both of the following conditions: 1 2 [ erf ( a ) - erf ( b )] equals the probability that a randomly se- lected Canadian woman is between 153cm and 158cm tall. 1 2 [ 1 - erf ( a )] equals the probability that a randomly selected Canadian woman is not more than 153cm tall. a = , b = . * These values for μ and σ 2 may not be reliable outside this prob- lem. Solution: For a random variable X whose probability density is given in the question and any real numbers α β , we have Pr ( α X β ) = Z β α 1 σ 2 π e - ( x - μ ) 2 2 σ 2 dx . The form of the error function suggests the substitution t = x - μ σ 2 . This calls for dx = σ 2 dt . Keeping the limits of integration syn- chronized with the integration variable gives Pr ( α X β ) = 1 σ 2 π Z ( β - μ ) / ( σ 2 ) ( α - μ ) / ( σ 2 ) e - t 2 ( σ 2 dt ) = 1 π Z ( β - μ ) / ( σ 2 ) ( α - μ ) / ( σ 2 ) e - t 2 dt = 1 2 erf β - μ σ 2 - 1 2 erf α - μ σ 2 . In our problem we have α < β < μ , so both inputs to the error function above are negative. It’s helpful to note that the function erf is odd (exercise: prove this!), so we can also write Pr ( α X β ) = 1 2 erf μ - α σ 2 - 1 2 erf μ - β σ 2 . The results for our specific situation involve α = 153 and β = 158, along with μ = 162 . 9 and σ 2 = 23 . 9, leading to a = μ - α 2 σ 2 = 1 . 43192821399742 , b = μ - β 2 σ 2 = 0 . 708732146321956 . (In the limit as α → - , the fact that erf ( z ) 1 as z + gives Pr ( X β ) = 1 2 ( 1 ) - 1 2 erf μ - β σ 2 . Thus the second stated requirement in the question is compatible with the development shown above.) Answer(s) submitted: - ( 153 - 162 . 9 ) 2 · 23 . 9 - ( 158 - 162 . 9 ) 2 · 23 . 9 submitted: (correct) recorded: (correct) Correct Answers: 1 . 43193 0 . 708732 Generated by ©WeBWorK, http://webwork.maa.org, Mathematical Association of America 9
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