City Modelling Plan Project

1 City Modelling Plan Project Student’s Name Institution Course Professor Date

2 City Modelling Plan Project Mathematical Model The mathematical model for Shanghai's population, considers the features and factors identified in ACT A. The model therefore incorporates the following components: Historical population data. The impact of societal factors, such as education and urbanization. Economic factors, including policies for talent recruitment and internationalization. Political factors, such as planned birth policies and their changes over time. The model takes the form of an equation, incorporating all these factors. The Mathematical Model P ( t ) = P 0 + ( Growth Factor ) ⋅ ( Urbanization Factor ) ⋅ ( Talent Recruitment Factor ) ⋅ ( Planned Birth Policy Factor ) ⋅ ( Internationalization Factor ) ⋅ t Where: P(t) is the population at time F(o) is the initial population. Growth Factor, Urbanization Factor, Talent Recruitment Factor, Planned Birth Policy Factor, and Internationalization Factor are parameters. Population Data Year Population 2000 16.74 million 2001 16.98 million 2002 17.14 million 2003 17.31 million 2004 17.49 million 2005 17.69 million 2006 17.91 million 2007 18.15 million 2008 18.39 million 2009 18.64 million

4 Planned Birth Policy Factor = 1.005 Internationalization Factor = 1.015 Using the exponential model above, we can be able to calculate population projections for 2025 – 2100. A sample example as shown below is for 2025. P(2025) = P(0)×(Growth Factor) (2025−2000) × Urbanization Factor × Talent Recruitment Factor × Planned Birth Policy Factor × Internationalization Factor P (2025)= P 0× (Growth Factor) (2025−2000) × Urbanization Factor × Talent Recruitment Factor × Planned Birth Policy Factor × Internationalization Factor The projected populations for 2025 to 2100 are: 2025: Approximately 26.63 million 2030: Approximately 28.77 million 2050: Approximately 43.51 million 2100: Approximately 89.58 million Projections Accuracy The population projections presented to the City Council accurate given that they reflect the best estimates based on historical data and mathematical modeling. These projections anticipate the following population figures: approximately 26.63 million in 2025, 28.77 million in 2030, 43.51 million in 2050, and 89.58 million in 2100. However, it is crucial to understand the factors affecting the accuracy of these projections. First, these projections rely on an exponential growth model, assuming that factors such as birth rates, death rates, urbanization, talent recruitment, and planned birth policies remain relatively stable. Any substantial shifts in these factors could lead to deviations from these projections. Second, the inherent uncertainty in demographic forecasting means that these figures represent plausible scenarios within a range of potential outcomes. Sensitivity analysis and validation of the

5 model against historical data have been conducted, but real-world events and policy changes could influence actual population growth significantly.