Week 1 - Journal - BUS625

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University Of Arizona *

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625

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Information Systems

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Oct 30, 2023

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1 Reflective Journal Swaminathan Subramanian The University of Arizona Global Campus BUS625: Data & Decision Analytics (FTB2211B) Prof. Kurt Diesch August 29, 2022

2 Introduction This Journal talks about chapter 1 and 2 from the book Superforecasting- The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock; Dan Gardner. According to the author everyone would benefit from predicting the future. It can be used in our day-to-day life like buying stocks, buying a lottery, buying real estate. If we all can predict it accurately then we are all rich. Unfortunately, it done not work that way and no one can be 100% correct in predicting. The three most important take aways contained in these chapter are 1. The present state of the universe is the effect of the past and the cause of its future I liked this phrase and the key take away I think of is this is similar to the Newton’s third law- Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. This can also be related to Karma and there is a reason behind all that happens around us and usually we might need to connect the dots backwards from an example of our life event and can analyze the reason for that event. 2. Illusion of Knowledge – According to Stephen Hawking ‘Ignorance is not the enemy of knowledge; it is the illusion.’ Chapter 2 talks about the knowledge about the physicians predicting about various diseases and providing treatment which might not the right and it was all due to wrong predictions. This can also be related to do not judge the book by its cover. Sometimes the mistakes that happen in the medical industry cannot be corrected as it deals with the human lives and once dead, they are dead for ever and it is hard to get them alive. 3. Absence of Doubt that made medicine unscientific Based on the details my understanding is in olden days there were lack of experiments and trials done for medicines because of which there were wrong predictions and incorrect diagnosis. Later in the twentieth century medicine became scientific where many trials and experiments were done. Even before assessing it on humans’ scientists started to assess them on animals like rats, monkeys etc once they succeed in their experiments these medicines are given to human beings.

3 Conclusion : As the author named the title Superforecasting is an Art of science and prediction. From the Good Judgement project with the help of all intellectual folks some of the predictions of the most historical world event was forecasted.

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