Week 3 - Journal - BUS625

docx

School

University Of Arizona *

*We aren’t endorsed by this school

Course

625

Subject

Information Systems

Date

Oct 30, 2023

Type

docx

Pages

Uploaded by MasterArt8229

1 Reflective Journal Swaminathan Subramanian The University of Arizona Global Campus BUS625: Data & Decision Analytics (FTB2211B) Prof. Kurt Diesch September 19, 2022

2 Introduction This Journal talks about chapter 3 keeping score and chapter 4 super forecasters from the book Superforecasting- The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock: Dan Gardner. In this chapter we learn about Supersmart and Superquants. The three most important take aways contained in these chapter are 1. The strength of the hunch would depend on the person: The indestructible enemy of Israel Yasser Arafat death was unknow and it is still a murder mystery. Yasser Arafat was a strong leader of the Palestine liberation organization. Since there are lot of conflicts between Israel and Palestine there is a tip of the nose perception that Israel might have positioned Yasser Arafat because researchers of Switzerland’s Lausanne university Institute of Radiation Physics announced that there were unnaturally elevated levels of polonium-210 discovered in Yasser Arafat’s body. These are harmful chemicals and can be deadly if ingested. Even though there is great scientist and investigators and Supersmart people around the world still it is not proved guilty. 2. Probabilities are for Weaklings In 2011 US intelligence community suspected that Osama bin laden was hiding in a building of a wealthy neighborhood of Pakistani city of Abbottabad. It took a decade after 9/11 attack to track him. We had a situation where the Super quant analyst should answer whether Osama Bin Laden was inside the building to detonate a missile attack to kill him. But the intelligence offices were not 100% sure so they started giving probability like 60%, 40%, 50% etc. However on of the intelligent office boldly confirmed 100 % that Osama Bin Laden is hiding in that building. Some officers says that nothing can be 100% but we sometimes need to think like Supreforcaster. 3. Probability for the stone age Human beings have been living with uncertainty starting from stone age as long as they have been recognized as human. There were no statistical models or simulation mechanism to think about probability. They only relied on the tip-of-your-nose perspective. There will be a three-setting dial that gives quick directions. If there is a lion

3 hiding in a tall grass, then your mind will think about 3 probabilities. Yes , mean run, No means don’t run, and May be means staying alert. Conclusion : As the author named the title Superforecasting is an Art of science and prediction. Sometimes there is luck where some one predicted might be correct and it is a pure chance. No one is flawless and no matter how good they are in predicting there should be luck as well to plays its part and some people are better in predicting the future. People who are Supersmart and Superquants might be able to predict future truly exceptional and it is not just a matter of chance. However, the nature of probability explains even the sophisticated people often make elementary mistakes. This book is not about how to be happy, and it is about accurate, and the probabilistic thinking is essential for that.

Your preview ends here

Eager to read complete document? Join bartleby learn and gain access to the full version