Week 4 - Journal - BUS625

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University Of Arizona *

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625

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Information Systems

Date

Oct 30, 2023

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1 Reflective Journal Swaminathan Subramanian The University of Arizona Global Campus BUS625: Data & Decision Analytics (FTB2211B) Prof. Kurt Diesch September 26, 2022

2 Introduction This Journal talks about chapter 9 Supernewsjunkies and chapter 10 Perpetual Beta from the book Superforecasting- The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock: Dan Gardner. The three most important take aways contained in these chapter are 1. Forecasts are not like lottery Winning lottery will not be that easy and you more likely can be struck by lightning. According to the probability study getting struck by a lightening in a given year is about one in a million chance whereas winning a mega million jackpot lottery is 300 times more than the lottery. So, the author says Forecast is ever more hard than winning lottery. So, a forecast that is updated to reflect the latest information is close to truth rather than the forecast that is not informed. 2. Superforcasters truth Forecasting is not like skeleton’s key that can open all locks. When forecasters compared their data with the scientist projections there are gaps. So, they understand the desire for fail safe rules as it guarantees superior results. Superforecasters update much more frequently than regular forecasters. Any updated forecast is better forecast and a more accurate forecast. Their forecast is better simple because they spend more time in research and watching news and keep themselves updating. 3. Failure is steppingstone for success Failure is an opportunity to identify mistakes, learn and spot new alternatives and keep trying till we success. Failure does not mean that one had reached his limits but need to try another chance – try, fail, analyze, adjust, and try again till you are succeeded. This is applicable to anything starting from playing golf to driving a plane. We need to keep trying, learning and get trained as much as possible to do it right. It will not come at first time, each one of them who are successful in the world would have tried 100 times to reach that place. One of a saying from Albert Einstein. A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new’

3 Conclusion: As the author named the title Superforecasting is an Art of science and prediction. Forecasting is similar to cycling. With bike riding you try, fail, analyze, adjust, and try again and you can learn cycling in a day or two, but forecasting will take months or even years. Supreforcasters are perpetual beta means having an open, expansive, and curious perspective which means an opportunity to gain experience and discover.

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