Week 2 - Journal - BUS625

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University Of Arizona *

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625

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Information Systems

Date

Oct 30, 2023

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1 Reflective Journal Swaminathan Subramanian The University of Arizona Global Campus BUS625: Data & Decision Analytics (FTB2211B) Prof. Kurt Diesch September 6, 2022

2 Introduction This Journal talks about chapter 3 keeping score and chapter 4 super forecasters from the book Superforecasting- The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock: Dan Gardner. When people create projections some of the factors that are left out is assuming that the audience knows the context and it might be great as people forget it in a 5 years’ time period. So forecast is not useful without a timetable and many projections lack a time scale. The big idea people focus entirely on the big idea and not on the reality. They can acquire all the data they want and since they are structuring it to match their idea it might not improve the accuracy of the forecast or the projections. The three most important take aways contained in these chapter are 1. Judging forecast is much harder than we think For example, if we imagine the weather forecast predicts 60% of rain. Some people judge that the forecasting is incorrect if it does not rain. But other side we have to think 40% chance of not raining. So, it is hard to judge a single forecast unless we analyze how many times it rains and confirm the forecast prediction which we need to look at meteorologist’s track record. 2. Probability is a much bigger one In order to access the forecast accuracy, one must be able to grasp exactly what the forecast says. Probability is one of the significant barriers in interpreting forecasts. It is to say something is likely to happen rather than to say something will happen. Forecasters use numbers to communicate probability however the numbers might appear to be authoritative. So if the idea is expresses in statistics there are chances to believe it as a objective fact than a subjective fact. 3. Intelligence failure in modern history we all think US national intelligence and Central Intelligence agency are one of the top intelligence agencies in the world. However, they failed in judging that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs against the UN resolutions and restrictions. When USA invaded Iraq and turned it upside down, they found nothing about WMD, and we all know the intelligence has been politicized and it was a false alarm on Saddam Hussein.

3 Conclusion : As the author named the title Superforecasting is an Art of science and prediction. Sometimes there is luck where some one predicted might be correct and it is a pure chance. No one is flawless and no matter how good they are in predicting there should be luck as well to plays its part and some people are better in predicting the future. People who maintain a super forecaster status might be able to predict future truly exceptional and it is not just a matter of chance. Gathering knowledge from a variety of sources and considering diverse perspectives as possible might be beneficial as it is difficult to see beyond one’s own perspectives. We should not stop with 2-3 perspectives, and we can think with more perspectives to sharpen our judgement. For example, we need to think of dragonfly whose eyes are made of separate several lenses which combines to form a single image in dragonfly mind. They have close to 30 thousand lenses on a single eye and these thousands of unique perspectives will flow into its single brain where it synthesized into a superb vision so it can see simultaneously in different directions.

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