Individual Staff Product Running Estimate
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Command & General Staff College *
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M000
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Feb 20, 2024
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US ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE
US Army Command and General Staff School
Command and General Staff Officer Course (CGSOC) Advanced Operations Course
Module 0: The Operations Process and the Brigade
M000 Elective Advance Sheet
Appendix A: Assessment Plan
Annex 2: Individual Running Estimate Assessment
Student Name:
Staff Group: 4D
Warfighting Function:
Intelligence Date: Instructor:
Department: Purpose:
This assessment evaluates your ability to analyze an operation as a staff officer and to clearly
and concisely communicate information and recommendations that facilitate the commander’s understanding of the operational environment and sound decision-making.
Instructions:
Develop a running estimate based on your assigned warfighting function (WfF) using the format provided. Your running estimate should demonstrate analysis of the brigade's operations in relation to your assigned warfighting function. Your running estimate should encompass the entire warfighting function and not focus on a particular branch.
This is an individual
, open-note, take-home assignment. As an individual
requirement,
you may not receive assistance from anyone
other than your DTAC instructor.
You may individually
reference FM 5-0 Planning and Orders Production
, other relevant doctrinal publications, any of the school-provided scenario information including maps and graphics student developed MDMP products, curriculum products, maps, graphics, and CPCE/JPS products you feel may help you to complete this requirement.
You may not reference
other student running estimates (even if a different WfF), student work from previous years (even if in a different format), or similar work found from other sources such as the internet. This constitutes academic ethics violations in accordance with CGSC Bulletin 920.
Your responses should be clear, concise, and complete sentences using proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
All submissions must be typed using the formation provided and submitted via Blackboard by the specified due date and time. Your submission must not exceed three pages, Times New Roman font, size 11, single-spaced.
M000
A2-1
AY24
Module 0 The Operations Process and the Brigade
Annex 2 (Running Estimate Rubric) to Appendix A: Assessment Plan
Rubric
Component
Excellent (5)
Satisfactory (4)
Needs Improvement / Unsat (3-0)
Facts, Assumptions, and Constraints
Identified at least two facts, two assumptions,
and one constraint; clearly and concisely explained impact to WfF and/or mission; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Identified at least one fact, one assumption, and one constraint; explained impact to WfF and/or mission; generally free of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
Did not identify at least one fact, assumption,
and/or constraint; did not adequately explain impact to WfF and/or mission; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Specified, Implied Tasks
Identified all the specified tasks for the WfF; identified at least one implied task that was necessary to accomplish one of the identified specified tasks; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Identified at least half but not all the specified tasks for the WfF; identified one implied task that was necessary to accomplish one of the identified specified tasks; generally free of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
Identified less than half of the specified tasks for the WfF; did not identify an implied task or identified implied task(s) were not necessary to accomplish any of the identified specified tasks; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Friendly Systems, Capabilities, and Requirements
Identified all the internal WfF equipment and
systems, the additional WfF resources available at higher echelon, and WfF capabilities from other military or civilian partners, as applicable; clearly and concisely articulated the WfF requirements needed to accomplish the mission and why; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Identified most of the internal WfF equipment and systems, the additional WfF resources available at higher echelon, and WfF capabilities from other military or civilian partners, as applicable; generally explained WfF requirements needed to accomplish the mission and why; generally free of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
Failed to identify many of the internal WfF equipment and systems, the additional WfF resources available at higher echelon, and WfF capabilities from other military or civilian partners, as applicable; poorly addressed WfF requirements needed to accomplish the mission and/or did not explain why; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Friendly Shortfalls and Risks
Identified all WfF shortfalls by comparing the capabilities versus the requirements; provided recommendations for identified shortfalls; identified at least one risk relevant to the WfF and recommended appropriate mitigation for that risk; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Identified most of the WfF shortfalls by comparing the capabilities versus the requirements; provided recommendations for identified shortfalls; identified one risk relevant to the WfF; did not offer recommended mitigation or recommendation was not adequate; generally free of grammar,
spelling, and punctuation errors.
Did not adequately address friendly shortfalls
and/or failed to provide recommendations for
identified shortfalls; did not identify risks relevant to the WfF; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Enemy Forces
Described composition of all enemy systems and their capabilities, their disposition, their estimated strength one echelon down, including separate units at lower echelons, and fully addressed their potential effects pertaining to assigned WfF; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Described composition of most enemy systems and their capabilities, their disposition, their estimated strength one echelon down, including separate units at lower echelons; limited discussion of potential effects pertaining to assigned WfF; generally free of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
Poorly described or did not describe composition enemy systems and their capabilities, their disposition, their estimated strength one echelon down, including separate units at lower echelons; and/or did not discuss potential effects pertaining to assigned WfF; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
M000
A2-2
AY24
Module 0 The Operations Process and the Brigade
Annex 2 (Running Estimate Rubric) to Appendix A: Assessment Plan
Component
Excellent (5)
Satisfactory (4)
Needs Improvement / Unsat (3-0)
Intel Requirement (Enemy), Information Requirement (Friendly), and EEFI
Identified at least one intel requirement (enemy/terrain), one info requirement (friendly), and one EEFI for assigned WfF; clearly and concisely explained why each was important for decision-making; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Identified one intel requirement (enemy/terrain), one info requirement (friendly), and one EEFI for assigned WfF; explained why each was important but lacked
relevance for decision-making; generally free
of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
Did not identify at least intel requirement (enemy/terrain), one info requirement (friendly), and one EEFI for assigned WfF; or did not explain why each was important for decision-making; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Analysis and Conclusions
Distinguished and prioritized the main issues,
risks, deficiencies, and potential enemy actions and summarized their impact to mission success and commander decision-
making; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
Distinguished, but did not prioritize, the main
issues, risks, deficiencies, and potential enemy actions; did not fully summarize their impact to mission success and commander decision-making; generally free of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
Did not clearly identify issues, risks, deficiencies, and/or potential enemy actions and did not summarize their impact or the summary was unclear; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Recommendations
For assigned WfF, recommended the most supportable COA (multiple COAs) or potential improvements to the COA (single COA) and clearly explained why; used complete sentences and proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.
For assigned WfF, recommended the most supportable COA (multiple COAs) or potential improvements to the COA (single COA); provide limited or unclear explanation
as to why; generally free of grammar, spelling, and punctuation errors.
For assigned WfF, recommended the most supportable COA (multiple COAs) or potential improvements to the COA (single COA but did not explain why, or did not provide recommendation; distracting grammar, spelling, and/or punctuation errors.
Overall Assessment
Points
Percent
Grade
40-38.8
97-100
A+
38.76-37.6
96.99-94
A
37.56-36
93.99-90
A-
35.96-34.8
89.99-87
B+
34.76-32
86.99-80
B
31.96-31.31.2
79.99-77
C+
31.16-28
76.99-70
C
27.96-0
<70
U
M000
A2-3
AY24
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Module 0 The Operations Process at Brigade Level
Annex 1 (Running Estimate Rubric) to Appendix A: Assessment Plan
Facts (Identify at least 2 critical facts relevant to your WfF and explain impact to WfF and/or mission)
5-20IN BN (Strykers) attached for duration of the operation, will enhance combat power of BDE.
Enemy conducts defensive operation with support of mine poles and higher level of artillery units.
It will complicate offensive operation. Assumptions
(Identify at least 2 assumptions relevant to your WfF and explain impact to WfF and/or mission)
Recon assets degrade A2AD IOT enable CAB/25ID’s attack during H+48-H+72
7152 will conduct a Mobile Defense which Aims to stop enemy assaults, isolate units, and either annihilate or compel withdrawal and consists of mix blocking and restraining actions with counterattacks to decisively defeat with larger defense zone and subsequent positions. Constraints
(Identify at least one constraint relevant to your WfF and explain impact to WfF and/or mission)
BDE must conduct offensive operation “abreast” of 2/1ID. It will require tight coordination with 2/1ID. Specified Tasks
(List all specified tasks for your WfF)
Seize OBJ MADISON IOT divert ENY off of AXIS Hornet
Fix ENY on OBJ MADISON IOT allow 20ABCT FOM to OBJ Monroe
Implied Tasks
(Identify at least one implied task, including purpose, for your WfF)
Coordination with friendly forces SBCT and 20ABCT during the operation. OBJ MADISON is the decision point to seize OBJ MONROE and OBJ HAMILTON. Friendly Systems, Capabilities, and Requirements
(Identify 1. internal WfF equipment and systems; 2. additional WfF resources available at higher echelon; 3. WfF capabilities from other military or civilian partners, as applicable; and 4. Systems and capabilities required to accomplish the mission.)
1.
1 BATTALION 6 INFANTRY REGIMENT 5 BATTALION 35 ARMOR REGIMENT
5 BATTALION 20 INFANTRY REGIMENT (ATTACHED from 1/2ID)
1 SQUADRON 1 CAVALRY REGIMENT
2.
1 BATTALION 158 INFANTRY REGIMENT
3.
N/A
4.
FA, EW, engineers to breach, CEC-A, CAB
Friendly Shortfalls
(Compare requirements to current capabilities for your WfF and suggest solutions for satisfying discrepancies) Mine poles of enemy complicate offensive operation with time and space. So anti mine trawl would increase offensive capability of BDE. Risk (Identify at least one risk relevant to your WfF and recommend mitigation)
Enemies depicting measurement of defensive position using camouflage, concealment, cyber and EW could create ambiguity. it would be mitigated with utilization of INT Bn coordination with corpse ACE IOT provide efficient information of enemy. Enemy Forces
(Within your WfF, describe composition of enemy systems and their capabilities, their disposition, their estimated strength, and their potential effects) In our operational zone, we are confronted by the 715 BCG, consisting of 3xMECH Bn, 1xTank Bn, and
1xREC Bn. Each Combined Arms Battalion (CA-Bn) integrates diverse maneuver elements and organic
short-range fires capabilities. Notably, the CA-Bn's headquarters can attach elements from other brigade
organizations as needed, despite its limited staff. A heavy rifle CA-Bn includes 3xMechanized Rifle
companies, 1xTank company, 1xFirepower company, 1xService Support company, and
1xReconnaissance Platoon. The 715 BCG is further fortified with support from 791 FA's artillery group,
812 E&CD brigade's engineer battalion, and 807 AD brigade's HQ-7B battery. Expecting supporting fires
from 7912 FA and potentially 7914 MRL battalions, the 715 BCG has adapted its strategy from seizing
passes in the ORD and RODMAN MOUNTAINS to a defensive posture further south. This adjustment
aims to secure a northern foothold for the remaining 71 ACG forces before resuming offensive actions.
M000 A1-4
AY24
Module 0 The Operations Process at Brigade Level
Annex 1 (Running Estimate Rubric) to Appendix A: Assessment Plan
Intelligence Requirements (Enemy/Terrain)
(Recommend one enemy or terrain related intelligence requirement for your WfF and explain why it is important)
What is the location and composition of enemy mine obstacles? It will mitigate risks of breaching mine poles and save time. Information Requirements (Friendly)
(Recommend one friendly forces information requirement for your WfF and explain why it is important) Where will SBCT and 20ABCT be located during the seize of OBJ MADISON? To synchronize movement to following execution and avoid friendly fire especially with 20ABCT. Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFIs)
(Recommend one EEFI for your WfF and explain why it is important)
Covert Movement Routes of SBCT and 20ABCT
Importance:
Securing the covert movement routes of SBCT and 20ABCT is crucial to preserving the element of surprise during the attack. This safeguards the effectiveness of the entire mission by preventing premature detection and response from the adversary. Concealing these routes enhances the operational advantage and contributes significantly to the success of the overall mission.
Analysis and Conclusions
(Distinguish and prioritize the main issues, risks, deficiencies, and potential enemy actions and summarize their impact to mission success and commander decision-making)
Main Issues:
Coordination and Synchronization: The coordination between the 37 AR, 2/1AD, and 20 ABCT needs to
be closely monitored to ensure synchronization in their movements and operations.
Intelligence Gaps: There are potential intelligence gaps regarding the specific enemy positions, capabilities, and intentions, which may impact the accuracy of planning and execution.
Fire Support Coordination: Effective coordination of fire support tasks and allocation of resources between I Corps and 25ID is crucial, especially in neutralizing enemy artillery and air defense assets.
Logistical Challenges: Sustainment operations and logistical support must be carefully managed to ensure the availability of critical supplies and equipment for the duration of the operation.
Risks:
Enemy Reinforcements: The potential for enemy reinforcements, especially from the 71 ACG, could pose a significant risk and may require constant surveillance and proactive measures.
Electronic Warfare and Cyber Threats: Risks associated with enemy electronic warfare and cyber activities could disrupt communications, intelligence, and overall command and control.
Obstacle Zones: The establishment of obstacle zones may pose risks.
Deficiencies:
Intelligence Gathering: The absence of a ground reconnaissance task force under division control may limit the effectiveness of intelligence gathering, especially in the division close area.
Potential Enemy Actions:
Counterattacks: The enemy, particularly the 71 ACG, may launch counterattacks to disrupt the main effort or reinforce their positions.
C2 Network Disruption: The enemy may attempt to disrupt friendly command and control networks, necessitating a focus on defensive cyber support.
Impact to Mission Success and Commander Decision-Making:
Mission Success: Success depends on effective coordination, intelligence gathering, and timely execution of fire support tasks. Any shortcomings in these areas could impact the overall mission success.
M000 A1-5
AY24
Module 0 The Operations Process at Brigade Level
Annex 1 (Running Estimate Rubric) to Appendix A: Assessment Plan
Commander Decision-Making: The commander must make decisions based on intelligence, potential enemy actions, and the dynamic nature of the battlefield. Rapid and well-informed decisions are critical for success.
Logistical Resilience: Logistical challenges and sustainment operations need to be resilient to ensure continuous support for the forces, allowing them to maintain combat power throughout the operation.
By addressing these main issues, mitigating identified risks, and improving deficiencies, the commander
can enhance the likelihood of mission success and ensure a more effective decision-making process during the operation.
Recommendations
(Recommend the most supportable COA from your WfF perspective, or potential improvements to the COA from your WfF perspective if a single COA and explain why.)
Recommendations:
Tempo: Opt for a COA with a high tempo, exceeding one day to facilitate smooth transitions between phases. Measure the COA's time management by tracking synchronization milestones, ensuring specific time hacks are consistently met.
Risk: Choose a COA with a low risk to the mission and force. Limit risks to fewer than two domains for the mission and avoid actions that severely jeopardize force integrity. Assess flexibility by ensuring sustainment nodes are dispersed and not concentrated in one location.
Operational Reach: Assess the COA's operational reach in terms of miles or kilometers from tail to front. Avoid overextension and verify that the plan pertinently covers intelligence-driven operational reach considerations. Ensure the ability to hold targets at risk throughout the AO.
Sustainment/Support: Prioritize COAs that ensure prolonged endurance in the field. Assess the pace of resupply, measured in days, and the location of Intermediate Staging Bases (ISBs) relative to the unit. Opt for COAs that facilitate sustained operations without compromising logistical support.
Surprise/Respond: Operate under the assumption of constant surveillance across all domains. Evaluate the enemy unit's response time to our main effort and the number of capabilities oriented towards it. Opt for COAs that exploit potential response gaps and maintain the initiative through strategic surprise.
M000 A1-6
AY24
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