FIN490 Week 2 Discussion 2
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Jan 9, 2024
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1.
Constant Rate of Increase in Incremental Revenues:
o
Assumption:
The scenario assumes a constant annual rate of increase in incremental revenues from the flavored water product. For instance, it predicts steady growth from
$600,000 in the first year to $850,000 in the third year.
o
Potential Error:
If market conditions or consumer preferences change unexpectedly, the actual revenues may deviate from the projected constant growth rate. The company might experience slower or faster growth, leading to inaccurate cash flow projections.
o
Impact on NPV and Capital Budgeting Decision:
If the
revenues are overestimated due to a constant growth assumption, the net present value (NPV) of the project could be inflated. Consequently, the company may make an investment decision based on optimistic cash flow projections that do not materialize.
2.
Fixed Percentage Increase in Operating Costs:
o
Assumption:
The scenario assumes a fixed percentage increase in operating costs (5% per year) associated with the new plant. This assumption implies that costs will rise at a consistent rate over the project's life.
o
Potential Error:
Economic conditions or unforeseen factors could cause actual operating costs to deviate from the assumed fixed percentage increase. Unexpected events, such as inflation, regulatory changes, or supply chain disruptions, may impact costs differently than anticipated.
o
Impact on NPV and Capital Budgeting Decision:
If the
actual operating costs increase more than the assumed 5% per year, the cash flow projections would be underestimated. This could lead to a lower NPV than expected, potentially influencing the capital budgeting decision negatively.
Strengthening the Cash Flow Estimation Process:
To enhance the accuracy of cash flow estimates, a sensitivity analysis could be employed. This involves testing the impact of variations in key assumptions on the project's NPV. By analyzing how changes in growth rates,
operating costs, or other critical factors affect the NPV, decision-makers can better understand the project's sensitivity to different scenarios. This helps in
identifying and mitigating potential risks associated with cash flow estimation.
Question about Cash Flow Estimation Errors:
How can the company incorporate real-time data and market feedback into its cash flow estimation process to adapt to changing conditions and reduce the risk of errors in projections?
Reference:
Moyer, R. C., McGuigan, J. R., & Rao, R. P. (2018).
Contemporary financial management
(14th ed.).
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