LBO Long model
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School
North Lake College *
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Course
301
Subject
Finance
Date
Apr 3, 2024
Type
xlsx
Pages
19
Uploaded by Inara_K
Company and Transaction Inputs
Company Information
Transaction Assumptions
Capital Structure Assumptions
Company Name
XX
Purchase Price Premium
10.0%
Base Case
Best Case
Weak Case
Project Name
XX
Implied Entry Multiple
11.6x Leverage Ratio
5.5x 6.0x 5.0x First Projected Year
2017
Exit Date
12/31/20
LTM EBITDA
$3,501.4
Fiscal Year End
31-Dec
Exit Year
2020
Debt Capacity
$19,257.70
Valuation Date
1/31/17
Projection Scenario (Base=1, Best=2, Weak=3)
1
Interest Rate
Current Stock Price
$65.0
Capital Structure Scenario
1
% of Total
Term (Years)
Cash PIK
$ Amount
Revolver Limit (% of AR+Inventory)
85.0%
Term A
30.0%
5
5.0%
$5,777.3 General Assumptions
EBITDA Exit Multiple
11.6x Term B
20.0%
7
5.5%
$3,851.5 Tax Rate
31.9%
EBITDA Multiple Steps
0.5x Term C
15.0%
7
6.0%
$2,888.7 Minimum Cash Balance
$500.0
Management Rollover
10.0%
Mezzanine
25.0%
5.0%
6.0%
$4,814.4 Interest Rate on Cash Balance
1.5%
Revolver
10.0%
4.0%
$1,925.8 Transaction Costs
Preferred stock
5.0%
4.0%
$5,000.0 Model is running:
%
$ Amount
Base Case
Projections
Financing
1.0%
$192.58
Model Checks
Base Case
Leverage Ratio
Amort. Period for Financing Costs (yrs)
8
Sources and uses balance
1.000 Transaction Fees (% of equity)
2.5%
Balance sheet balances
1.000 Revolver limit observed
1.000 Management Participation
Management Rollover
$3,725.15
10.0%
Cash to Shareholders
$33,526.35
90.0%
Circuit Breaker (Off=1, On=0)
1
New Management Equity
$200.0
Transaction Summary: XX --Base Case Projections
Offer calculation
Sources
$ Amount
x LTM EBITDA
% of Total
Share price
$65.0
Cash (Less Minimum Balance)
$189.5
0.1x
0.4%
Purchase Price Premium
10.0%
Term A
5,777.3
1.7x
13.7%
Offer price per share
$71.5
Term B
3,851.5
1.1x
9.1%
Diluted shares outstanding
521
Term C
2,888.7
0.8x
6.8%
Offer value
$37,251.5
Mezzanine Debt
4,814.4
1.4x
11.4%
Revolver
1,925.8
0.6x
4.6%
Existing debt
3,671.2 Total Debt
$19,257.7
5.5x
45.7%
Preferred
222.7 Preferred Stock
5,000.0
1.4x
11.9%
Less: cash
689.5 Sponsor Equity
13,803.8
3.9x
32.7%
Transaction value
40,455.9 Management Equity
200.0
0.1x
0.5%
Management Rollover
3,725.2
1.1x
8.8%
Total Sources
$42,176.1
12.0x
100.0%
Uses
$ Amount
x LTM EBITDA
% of Total
Equity Purchase Price
$33,526.4
9.6x 79.5%
Debt Retired
3,671.2
1.0x 8.7%
Purchase of Pref. Stock
222.7
0.1x 0.5%
Financing Fees
192.6
0.1x 0.5%
Transaction Costs
838.2
0.2x 2.0%
Management Rollover
3,725.2
1.1x 8.8%
Total Uses
$42,176.1
12.0x 100.0%
Check
0.0 Goodwill Calculation
Common Equity
$1,188.2 Purchase Price
37,251.5 Goodwill $36,063.3
Income Statement: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
LTM TOS
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Total Revenues
$10,584.2
$11,396.9
$12,580.7
$13,889.1
$15,139.1
$16,198.8
$17,332.8
$18,372.7
$19,475.1
$20,643.6
$21,675.8
$22,759.6
COGS (excluding D&A)
4,416.0
4,762.4
5,000.0
5,242.2
5,524.8
5,830.5
6,152.0
6,429.2
6,815.0
7,223.9
7,585.1
7,964.4
SG&A
3,688.4
3,992.2
4,000.0
4,277.1
4,662.0
4,988.4
5,337.6
5,657.8
5,997.3
6,357.1
6,675.0
7,008.8
Other operating expenses
48.9
136.3
79.3
41.7
45.4
48.6
52.0
55.1
58.4
61.9
65.0
68.3
EBITDA
2,430.9
2,506.0
3,501.4
4,328.1
4,906.9
5,331.3
5,791.2
6,230.5
6,604.4
7,000.6
7,350.7
7,718.2
Depreciation & amortization
327.8
329.3
328.7
351.3
381.4
406.9
434.1
459.2
485.7
513.8
538.7
564.8
Operating profit - EBIT
2,103.1
2,176.7
3,172.7
3,976.8
4,525.5
4,924.5
5,357.1
5,771.4
6,118.7
6,486.8
6,812.0
7,153.4
Interest expense
119.7
136.0
158.7
1,231.6
1,156.1
1,066.9
965.8
855.2
791.2
778.7
796.3
844.1
Interest income
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
8.5
28.8
69.6
121.6
184.5
Amortization of capitalized financing fees
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.1
0.0
Pretax income
1,983.4
2,040.7
3,014.0
2,728.7
3,352.8
3,841.0
4,374.6
4,900.6
5,332.1
5,753.6
6,113.2
6,493.8
Taxes
645.6
670.6
850.0
870.4
1,069.5
1,225.3
1,395.5
1,563.3
1,701.0
1,835.4
1,950.1
2,071.5
Net Income
$1,337.8
$1,370.1
$2,164.0
$1,858.2
$2,283.3
$2,615.8
$2,979.1
$3,337.3
$3,631.2
$3,918.2
$4,163.1
$4,422.3
Income Statement Assumptions: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Revenue Growth
Current Case
7.7%
10.4%
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Base Case
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Best Case
11.4%
10.0%
8.0%
8.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Weak Case
9.4%
8.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
Revenue Growth Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Gross Profit Margin
Current Case
58.3%
58.2%
60.3%
62.3%
63.5%
64.0%
64.5%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
Base Case
62.3%
63.5%
64.0%
64.5%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
Best Case
63.3%
64.5%
65.0%
65.5%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
Weak Case
61.3%
62.5%
63.0%
63.5%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
Gross Profit Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
SG&A Margin
Current Case
34.8%
35.0%
31.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
Base Case
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
Best Case
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
Weak Case
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
SG&A Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Other operating expenses
0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Tax Rate
32.6% 32.9% 28.2% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% Balance Sheet: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
LTM TOS
Closing
Closing Projected
2015
Dec-16
Adjustments
Dec-16
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and equivalents
$340.7
$689.5
-$189.50
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$628.9
$3,209.1
$6,072.6
$10,143.8
$14,451.2
Accounts receivable
1,309.4
1,523.2
1,523.2
1,681.6
1,833.0
1,961.3
2,098.6
2,224.5
2,357.9
2,499.4
2,624.4
2,755.6
Inventories
855.8
1,008.4
1,008.4
1,057.3
1,114.2
1,175.9
1,240.7
1,296.7
1,374.4
1,456.9
1,529.8
1,606.3
Other current assets
251.2
279.9
279.9
309.0
336.8
360.4
385.6
408.8
433.3
459.3
482.3
506.4
Equity in affiliates
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Non Current Assets
PP&E
2,544.1
2,696.1
2,696.1
2,848.0
3,013.5
3,190.6
3,380.1
3,580.9
3,793.9
4,019.6
4,256.5
4,505.4
Goodwill
1,845.7
2,081.8
36,063.3
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
38,145.1
Intangible assets
783.2
831.1
831.1
814.1
797.1
780.1
763.1
746.1
729.1
712.1
695.1
678.1
Other non-current assets
577.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
Capitalized financing costs
192.6
192.6
168.5
144.4
120.4
96.3
72.2
48.1
24.1
0.0
0.0
Total Assets
$8,507.1
$9,338.0
$36,066.4
$45,404.4
$45,751.5
$46,112.1
$46,461.7
$46,837.5
$47,331.1
$50,319.0
$53,617.0
$58,104.9
$62,876.0
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable
876.1 1,239.7 1,239.7 1,299.8 1,369.8 1,445.6 1,525.3 1,594.1 1,689.7 1,791.1 1,880.6 1,974.7 Taxes payable
215.5 161.5 161.5 165.4 203.2 232.8 265.1 297.0 323.2 348.7 370.5 393.6 Other current liabilities (non-debt)
1,123.2 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,454.1 1,584.9 1,695.9 1,814.6 1,923.5 2,038.9 2,161.2 2,269.3 2,382.7 Debt
Pre LBO Debt - Current portion of LTD
356.7 776.7 (776.7)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Pre LBO Debt - STD
171.5 174.1 (174.1)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Pre LBO Debt - LTD
2,918.0 2,720.4 (2,720.4)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – LBO Debt - Term A
5,777.3 5,777.3 4,621.8 3,466.4 2,310.9 1,155.5 – – – – – LBO Debt - Term B
3,851.5 3,851.5 3,301.3 2,751.1 2,200.9 1,650.7 1,100.4 550.2 – – – LBO Debt - Term C
2,888.7 2,888.7 2,476.0 2,063.3 1,650.7 1,238.0 825.3 412.7 – – – LBO Debt - Mezzanine
4,814.4 4,814.4 5,103.3 5,409.5 5,734.1 6,078.1 6,442.8 6,829.4 7,239.1 7,673.5 8,133.9 LBO Debt - Revolving credit facility
1,925.8 1,925.8 2,293.3 2,204.0 1,785.6 1,007.0 – – – – – Deferred income taxes
554.7 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 Other non-current liabilities
941.3 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 Total Liabilities
7,157.0 7,927.1 15,586.5 23,513.6 22,252.5 20,589.9 18,594.1 16,271.9 13,720.7 13,381.6 13,077.8 13,731.5 14,422.5 EQUITY
Pre LBO preferred stock
253.7 222.7 (222.7)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – LBO preferred stock
5,000.0 5,000.0 5,200.0 5,408.0 5,624.3 5,849.3 6,083.3 6,326.6 6,579.7 6,842.8 7,116.6 Common equity
1,096.4 1,188.2 15,702.6 16,890.8 18,299.0 20,114.3 22,243.3 24,716.2 27,527.1 30,610.8 33,959.6 37,530.5 41,337.0 Total Shareholders' Equity
1,350.1 1,410.9 20,479.9 21,890.8 23,499.0 25,522.3 27,867.6 30,565.5 33,610.4 36,937.4 40,539.3 44,373.4 48,453.5 Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
8,507.1 9,338.0 36,066.4 45,404.4 45,751.5 46,112.1 46,461.7 46,837.5 47,331.1 50,319.0 53,617.0 58,104.9 62,876.0 Balance check
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Balance Sheet Assumptions: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Accounts receivable growth
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Inventory growth
4.8%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
4.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Other current asset growth
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Accounts payable growth
4.8%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
4.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Taxes payable growth
2.4%
22.9%
14.6%
13.9%
12.0%
8.8%
7.9%
6.3%
6.2%
Other current liabilities growth
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Cash Flow Statement: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Net Income
$1,858.2 $2,283.3 $2,615.8 $2,979.1 $3,337.3 $3,631.2 $3,918.2 $4,163.1 $4,422.3 Non-Cash Adjustments
Depreciation & Amortization
351.3 381.4 406.9 434.1 459.2 485.7 513.8 538.7 564.8 Financing cost amortization
24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 0.0 Non-cash interest expense
288.9 306.2 324.6 344.0 364.7 386.6 409.8 434.3 460.4 Adjusted Net Income
2,522.4 2,994.9 3,371.2 3,781.4 4,185.2 4,527.5 4,865.9 5,160.2 5,447.5 Working Capital Source/(Use)
Changes in working capital assets
Accounts receivable
(158.4)
(151.3)
(128.3)
(137.3)
(125.9)
(133.5)
(141.5)
(125.0)
(131.2)
Inventories
(48.9)
(57.0)
(61.7)
(64.8)
(55.9)
(77.8)
(82.5)
(72.8)
(76.5)
Other current assets
(29.1)
(27.8)
(23.6)
(25.2)
(23.1)
(24.5)
(26.0)
(23.0)
(24.1)
Changes in working capital liabilities
Accounts payable
60.1 70.1 75.8 79.7 68.7 95.6 101.4 89.6 94.0 Taxes payable
3.9 37.8 29.6 32.3 31.9 26.2 25.5 21.8 23.1 Other current liabilities
137.0 130.9 110.9 118.7 108.9 115.4 122.3 108.1 113.5 Deferred income taxes
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from operations
2,487.0 2,997.5 3,374.0 3,784.8 4,189.8 4,528.9 4,865.2 5,158.8 5,446.2
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Capital Expenditures
(486.1)
(529.9)
(567.0)
(606.6)
(643.0)
(681.6)
(722.5)
(758.7)
(796.6)
Asset sales
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net purchases of intangible assets
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from investing
(486.1)
(529.9)
(567.0)
(606.6)
(643.0)
(681.6)
(722.5)
(758.7)
(796.6)
Newco preferred cash dividends and paydown
(250.0)
(260.0)
(270.4)
(281.2)
(292.5)
(304.2)
(316.3)
(329.0)
(342.1)
Cash from financing before debt
(250.0)
(260.0)
(270.4)
(281.2)
(292.5)
(304.2)
(316.3)
(329.0)
(342.1)
Free cash flows prior to term loan amort.
1,750.9 2,207.6 2,536.7 2,896.9 3,254.2 3,543.2 3,826.3 4,071.2 4,307.5 Term A
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Term B
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
0.0 0.0 Term C
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
0.0 0.0 Free cash flows prior to revolver
(367.5)
89.3 418.3 778.6 1,135.9 2,580.3 2,863.4 4,071.2 4,307.5 Revolver
367.5 (89.3)
(418.3)
(778.6)
(1,007.0)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net change in cash
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $128.9 $2,580.3 $2,863.4 $4,071.2 $4,307.5 Debt Paydown Schedule: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Term A
Beginning Balance
5,777.3 4,621.8 3,466.4 2,310.9 1,155.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mandatory Payments
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
(1,155.5)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Discretionary Payments
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
4,621.8 3,466.4 2,310.9 1,155.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Term B
Beginning Balance
3,851.5 3,301.3 2,751.1 2,200.9 1,650.7 1,100.4 550.2 0.0 0.0 Mandatory Payments
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
(550.2)
0.0 0.0 Discretionary Payments
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
3,301.3 2,751.1 2,200.9 1,650.7 1,100.4 550.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Term C
Beginning Balance
2,888.7 2,476.0 2,063.3 1,650.7 1,238.0 825.3 412.7 0.0 0.0 Mandatory Payments
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
(412.7)
0.0 0.0 Discretionary Payments
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
2,476.0 2,063.3 1,650.7 1,238.0 825.3 412.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mezzanine
Beginning Balance
4,814.4 5,103.3 5,409.5 5,734.1 6,078.1 6,442.8 6,829.4 7,239.1 7,673.5 Additions via PIK Interest
288.9 306.2 324.6 344.0 364.7 386.6 409.8 434.3 460.4 Ending Balance
5,103.3 5,409.5 5,734.1 6,078.1 6,442.8 6,829.4 7,239.1 7,673.5 8,133.9 Preferred Stock
Beginning Balance
5,000.0 5,200.0 5,408.0 5,624.3 5,849.3 6,083.3 6,326.6 6,579.7 6,842.8 Additions via PIK Interest
200.0 208.0 216.3 225.0 234.0 243.3 253.1 263.2 273.7 Ending Balance
5,200.0 5,408.0 5,624.3 5,849.3 6,083.3 6,326.6 6,579.7 6,842.8 7,116.6 Revolver
Beginning Cash
500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 628.9 3,209.1 6,072.6 10,143.8 Plus: Free cash flows prior to revolver
(367.5)
89.3 418.3 778.6 1,135.9 2,580.3 2,863.4 4,071.2 4,307.5 Less: Minimum Cash Balance
500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 Cash Available (required) for Revolver and Cash
(367.5)
89.3 418.3 778.6 1,135.9 2,709.1 5,572.6 9,643.8 13,951.2 Beginning Balance
1,925.8 2,293.3 2,204.0 1,785.6 1,007.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
2,293.3 2,204.0 1,785.6 1,007.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revolver Limit
2,328.0 2,505.1 2,666.6 2,838.4 2,992.9 3,172.5 3,362.9 3,531.0 3,707.6 Revolver Borrowing Capacity (Overdrawn Amount)
34.8 301.1 880.9 1,831.3 2,992.9 3,172.5 3,362.9 3,531.0 3,707.6 Revolver Overdrawn? Yes/No
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Interest Expense Calculation: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Term A
Average Balance
$5,199.6 $4,044.1 $2,888.7 $1,733.2 $577.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Interest Rate (Cash)
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Interest Expense (Cash)
260.0 202.2 144.4 86.7 28.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Term B
Average Balance
3,576.4 3,026.2 2,476.0 1,925.8 1,375.6 825.3 275.1 0.0 0.0 Interest Rate (Cash)
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
Interest Expense (Cash)
196.7 166.4 136.2 105.9 75.7 45.4 15.1 0.0 0.0 Term C
Average Balance
2,682.3 2,269.7 1,857.0 1,444.3 1,031.7 619.0 206.3 0.0 0.0 Interest Rate (Cash)
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Interest Expense (Cash)
160.9 136.2 111.4 86.7 61.9 37.1 12.4 0.0 0.0 Mezzanine
Beginning Balance
4,814.4 5,103.3 5,409.5 5,734.1 6,078.1 6,442.8 6,829.4 7,239.1 7,673.5 Interest Rate (Cash)
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Interest Rate (PIK)
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Interest Expense (Cash)
240.7 255.2 270.5 286.7 303.9 322.1 341.5 362.0 383.7 Interest Expense (PIK)
288.9 306.2 324.6 344.0 364.7 386.6 409.8 434.3 460.4 Revolver
Average Balance
2,109.5 2,248.6 1,994.8 1,396.3 503.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Rate (Cash)
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
Interest Expense (Cash)
84.4 89.9 79.8 55.9 20.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Expense
Cash Interest Expense
942.7 849.9 742.3 621.8 490.5 404.7 369.0 362.0 383.7 Non-Cash Interest Expense
288.9 306.2 324.6 344.0 364.7 386.6 409.8 434.3 460.4 Total Interest Expense
1,231.6 1,156.1 1,066.9 965.8 855.2 791.2 778.7 796.3 844.1 Interest Income
Cash Balance, Average
500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 564.4 1,919.0 4,640.8 8,108.2 12,297.5 Interest Rate
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Total Interest Income
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.5 28.8 69.6 121.6 184.5 Preferred Stock
Beginning Balance
5,000.0 5,200.0 5,408.0 5,624.3 5,849.3 6,083.3 6,326.6 6,579.7 6,842.8 Dividend Rate (Cash)
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Dividend Rate (PIK)
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
Dividend Expense (Cash)
250.0 260.0 270.4 281.2 292.5 304.2 316.3 329.0 342.1 Dividend Expense (PIK)
200.0 208.0 216.3 225.0 234.0 243.3 253.1 263.2 273.7 Amortization Schedule: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
Beginning
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Amount
Years
Transaction Cost Amortization
192.6 8
$24.1 $24.1 $24.1 $24.1 $24.1 $24.1 $24.1 $24.1 $0.0 Capitalized Financing Cost Asset
168.5 144.4 120.4 96.3 72.2 48.1 24.1 0.0 0.0 Intangible Assets
814.1 797.1 780.1 763.1 746.1 729.1 712.1 695.1 678.1 Purchase of intangible assets
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortization of Intangibles
17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 Depreciation Schedule: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Simple PP&E and Depreciation Assumptions
Capital Expenditures (model as a % of revenue)
4%
$486.1 $529.9 $567.0 $606.6 $643.0 $681.6 $722.5 $758.7 $796.6 Depreciation (grow with revenue)
334.3 364.4 389.9 417.1 442.2 468.7 496.8 521.7 547.8 Asset Sales
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PP&E
2,848.0 3,013.5 3,190.6 3,380.1 3,580.9 3,793.9 4,019.6 4,256.5 4,505.4 NOTE: A full-blown analysis should include a waterfall schedule
Leverage Statistics
Projected
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Cash
$500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $628.9 $3,209.1 $6,072.6 $10,143.8 $14,451.2 Total debt (include Preferred)
22,995.7 21,302.3 19,306.5 16,978.6 14,451.8 14,118.8 13,818.8 14,516.3 15,250.4 Shareholders' equity
23,499.0 25,522.3 27,867.6 30,565.5 33,610.4 36,937.4 40,539.3 44,373.4 48,453.5 Total debt and equity
46,494.7 46,824.5 47,174.1 47,544.1 48,062.2 51,056.2 54,358.0 58,889.7 63,704.0 Net debt
22,495.7 20,802.3 18,806.5 16,478.6 13,823.0 10,909.7 7,746.2 4,372.5 799.2 EBITDA
4,328.1 4,906.9 5,331.3 5,791.2 6,230.5 6,604.4 7,000.6 7,350.7 7,718.2 Interest expense
1,231.6 1,156.1 1,066.9 965.8 855.2 791.2 778.7 796.3 844.1 Capex
486 530 567 607 643 682 723 759 797 Total debt / 5.3x
4.3x
3.6x
2.9x
2.3x
2.1x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
EBITDA
EBITDA / Interest expense
3.5x
4.2x
5.0x
6.0x
7.3x
8.3x
9.0x
9.2x
9.1x
(EBITDA - capex) / Interest expense
3.1x
3.8x
4.5x
5.4x
6.5x
7.5x
8.1x
8.3x
8.2x
% Term A debt paid down
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
% Term B debt paid down
14.3%
28.6%
42.9%
57.1%
71.4%
85.7%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
% Term C debt paid down
14.3%
28.6%
42.9%
57.1%
71.4%
85.7%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Exit LBO Analysis: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
Projected
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
EBITDA
$3,501.4 $4,328.1 $4,906.9 $5,331.3 $5,791.2 $6,230.5 $6,604.4 $7,000.6 $7,350.7 $7,718.2 Net Debt
22,495.7 20,802.3 18,806.5 16,478.6 13,823.0 10,909.7 7,746.2 4,372.5 799.2 Equity Allocation (Simple Assumptions)
Dilutive Securities:
Mezzanine Debt
5%
Preferred Stock
10%
Common Equity:
Management Performance Equity
1%
Management Rollover
21%
Sponsor Equity
79%
Exit Year Computations
EBITDA
$5,791.2
Enterprise Value
66,912.7
Less: Net Debt
16,478.6
Equity Value
50,434.1
Mezzanine Equity
2,521.7
Preferred Stock Equity
5,043.4
Management Equity
504.3
Sponsor and Management Rollover Equity
42,364.7
Management Rollover
9,003.1
Sponsor Equity
33,361.6
Returns Calculations: XX --Base Case Projections
1/31/2017
12/31/2017
12/31/2018
12/31/2019
12/31/2020
12/31/2021
12/31/2022
12/31/2023
12/31/2024
12/31/2025
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Financial Sponsors - Cash Inflows (Outflows)
-13,803.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
33,361.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IRR
25.3%
Sensitivity
Sponsor IRR Sensitivity
Equity Purchase Price
Step
$27,500.0
$32,500.0
$37,500.0
$42,500.0
$47,500.0
$5,000.0
EBITDA Exit Mult.
10.6x 50.7%
32.1%
21.2%
13.6%
11.1%
0.5x
11.1x 53.2%
34.2%
23.1%
15.4%
9.6%
11.6x 55.5%
36.3%
25.0%
17.2%
11.3%
12.1x 57.7%
38.2%
26.8%
18.8%
12.9%
12.6x 59.8%
40.1%
28.5%
20.4%
14.4%
Sponsor IRR Sensitivity
Exit Year
Step
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1.0
Leverage
4.5x 44.3%
27.2%
19.6%
15.3%
12.6%
0.5x
5.0x 50.9%
31.0%
22.3%
17.4%
14.2%
5.5x 58.5%
35.4%
25.3%
19.7%
16.1%
6.0x 67.4%
40.3%
28.6%
22.2%
18.1%
6.5x 77.9%
46.0%
32.5%
25.1%
20.5%
Company and Transaction Inputs
Company Information
Transaction Assumptions
Capital Structure Assumptions
Company Name
XX
Purchase Price Premium
20.0%
Base Case
Best Case
Weak Case
Project Name
XX
Implied Entry Multiple
Leverage Ratio
4.5x 5.0x 4.0x First Projected Year
2019
Exit Date
12/31/22
LTM EBITDA
Fiscal Year End
31-Dec
Exit Year
2022
Debt Capacity
Valuation Date
1/31/19
Projection Scenario (Base=1, Best=2, Weak=3)
Interest Rate
Current Stock Price
$60.0
Capital Structure Scenario (Base=1, Best=2, Weak=3)
% of Total
Term (Years)
Cash PIK
$ Amount
EBITDA Exit Multiple
– Term
85.0%
6
6.0%
General Assumptions
Management Rollover
10.0%
Revolver
15.0%
4.0%
Tax Rate
31.9%
Minimum Cash Balance
$500.0
Transaction Costs
Interest Rate on Cash Balance
1.5%
%
$ Amount
Transaction Fees (% of equity)
2.5%
Model is running:
Err:502
Projections
Management Participation
$
%
Model Checks
Err:502
Leverage Ratio
Management Rollover
Sources and uses balance
1.000 Cash to Shareholders
Balance sheet balances
– New Management Equity
$200.0
Circuit Breaker (Off=1, On=0)
1
Err:502
Offer calculation
Sources
$ Amount
x LTM EBITDA
% of Total
Share price
Cash (Less Minimum Balance)
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Purchase Price Premium
Term
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Offer price per share
Revolver
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Diluted shares outstanding
440
Total Debt
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Offer value
Existing debt
Sponsor Equity
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Preferred
Management Equity
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Less: cash
Management Rollover
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Transaction value
Total Sources
0.0x
#DIV/0!
Uses
$ Amount
x LTM EBITDA
% of Total
Equity Purchase Price
– #DIV/0!
Debt Retired
– #DIV/0!
Purchase of Pref. Stock
– #DIV/0!
Transaction Costs
– #DIV/0!
Management Rollover
– #DIV/0!
Total Uses
– #DIV/0!
Check
0.0 Goodwill Calculation
Common Equity
$1,188.2 Purchase Price
0.0 Goodwill ($1,188.2)
Err:502
Actual
LTM TOS
Projected
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Total Revenues
$10,584.2
$11,396.9
$12,580.7
COGS (excluding D&A)
4,416.0
4,762.4
5,000.0
SG&A
3,688.4
3,992.2
4,000.0
Other operating expenses
48.9
136.3
79.3
EBITDA
2,430.9
2,506.0
3,501.4
Depreciation & amortization
327.8
329.3
328.7
351.3
381.4
406.9
434.1
459.2
485.7
513.8
538.7
564.8
Operating profit - EBIT
2,103.1
2,176.7
3,172.7
-351.3
-381.4
-406.9
-434.1
-459.2
-485.7
-513.8
-538.7
-564.8
Interest expense
119.7
136.0
158.7
Interest income
0.0
0.0
0.0
Pretax income
1,983.4
2,040.7
3,014.0
Taxes
645.6
670.6
850.0
Net Income
$1,337.8
$1,370.1
$2,164.0
Err:502
Actual
Projected
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Revenue Growth
Current Case
7.7%
10.4%
Base Case
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Best Case
Weak Case
Revenue Growth Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Gross Profit Margin
Current Case
58.3%
58.2%
60.3%
Base Case
62.3%
63.5%
64.0%
64.5%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
Best Case
63.3%
64.5%
65.0%
65.5%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
Weak Case
61.3%
62.5%
63.0%
63.5%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
Gross Profit Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
SG&A Margin
Current Case
34.8%
35.0%
31.8%
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Base Case
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
Best Case
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
Weak Case
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
SG&A Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Other operating expenses
0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Tax Rate
32.6% 32.9% 28.2% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9%
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Err:502
Actual
LTM TOS
Closing
Closing Projected
2017
Dec-18
Adjustments
Dec-18
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and equivalents
$340.7
$689.5
$0.00
$689.5
$689.5
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Accounts receivable
1,309.4
1,523.2
1,523.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inventories
855.8
1,008.4
1,008.4
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Other current assets
251.2
279.9
279.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Equity in affiliates
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Non Current Assets
PP&E
2,544.1
2,696.1
2,696.1
2,848.0
3,013.5
3,190.6
3,380.1
3,580.9
3,793.9
4,019.6
4,256.5
4,505.4
Goodwill
1,845.7
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
2,081.8
Intangible assets
783.2
831.1
831.1
814.1
797.1
780.1
763.1
746.1
729.1
712.1
695.1
678.1
Other non-current assets
577.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
Total Assets
$8,507.1
$9,338.0
$0.0
$9,338.0
$6,661.4
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable
876.1 1,239.7 1,239.7 0.0 #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Taxes payable
215.5 161.5 161.5 0.0 #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Other current liabilities (non-debt)
1,123.2 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,317.1 Debt
Pre LBO Debt - Current portion of LTD
356.7 776.7 – – – – – – – – – Pre LBO Debt - STD
171.5 174.1 – – – – – – – – – Pre LBO Debt - LTD
2,918.0 2,720.4 – – – – – – – – – LBO Debt - Term A
– – – – – – – – LBO Debt - Revolving credit facility
– – – – – – – – Deferred income taxes
554.7 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 Other non-current liabilities
941.3 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 Total Liabilities
7,157.0 7,927.1 0.0 4,255.9 2,854.7 #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
EQUITY
Pre LBO preferred stock
253.7 222.7 – – – – – – – – – Common equity
1,096.4 1,188.2 (1,188.2)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Total Shareholders' Equity
1,350.1 1,410.9 (1,188.2)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
8,507.1 9,338.0 (1,188.2)
4,255.9 2,854.7 #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Balance check
0.00 0.00 1,188.20 5,082.10 3,806.65 #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Err:502
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Accounts receivable growth
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Inventory growth
-100.0%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Other current asset growth
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Accounts payable growth
-100.0%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Taxes payable growth
-100.0%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Other current liabilities growth
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Err:502
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Net Income
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Non-Cash Adjustments
Depreciation & Amortization
381.4 406.9 434.1 459.2 485.7 513.8 538.7 564.8 Adjusted Net Income
381.4 406.9 434.1 459.2 485.7 513.8 538.7 564.8 Working Capital Source/(Use)
Changes in working capital assets
Accounts receivable
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventories
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Other current assets
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Changes in working capital liabilities
Accounts payable
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Taxes payable
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Other current liabilities
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Deferred income taxes
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from operations
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Capital Expenditures
(486.1)
(529.9)
(567.0)
(606.6)
(643.0)
(681.6)
(722.5)
(758.7)
(796.6)
Cash from investing
(486.1)
(529.9)
(567.0)
(606.6)
(643.0)
(681.6)
(722.5)
(758.7)
(796.6)
Free cash flows prior to term loan amort.
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Term
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flows prior to revolver
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Revolver
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net change in cash
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Err:502
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Term Beginning Balance
Mandatory Payments
Discretionary Payments
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
Revolver
Beginning Cash
Plus: Free cash flows prior to revolver
Less: Minimum Cash Balance
Cash Available (required) for Revolver and Cash
Beginning Balance
Ending Balance
Err:502
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Term Average Balance
Interest Rate (Cash)
Interest Expense (Cash)
Revolver
Average Balance
Interest Rate (Cash)
Interest Expense (Cash)
Interest Expense
Cash Interest Expense
Total Interest Expense
Interest Income
Cash Balance, Average
Interest Rate
Total Interest Income
Leverage Statistics
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Total debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest expense
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total debt / EBITDA
EBITDA / Interest expense
nm
nm
nm
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Err:502
Actual
Projected
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
EBITDA
$3,501.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Net Debt
(689.5)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Equity Allocation (Simple Assumptions)
Common Equity:
Management Performance Equity + Dilutive Securities
6%
Remaining Equity Allocation
Management Rollover
#DIV/0!
Sponsor Equity
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Exit Year Computations
EBITDA
Enterprise Value
Less: Net Debt
Equity Value
Management Equity
Sponsor and Management Rollover Equity
Management Rollover
Sponsor Equity
Err:502
1/31/2019
12/31/2019
12/31/2020
12/31/2021
12/31/2022
12/31/2023
12/31/2024
12/31/2025
12/31/2026
12/31/2027
Financial Sponsors - Cash Inflows (Outflows)
IRR
Company and Transaction Inputs
Company Information
Transaction Assumptions
Capital Structure Assumptions
Company Name
XX
Purchase Price Premium
20.0%
Base Case
Best Case
Weak Case
Project Name
XX
Implied Entry Multiple
10.0x Leverage Ratio
4.5x 5.0x 4.0x First Projected Year
2019
Exit Date
12/31/22
LTM EBITDA
$3,501.4
Fiscal Year End
31-Dec
Exit Year
2022
Debt Capacity
$15,756.30
Valuation Date
1/31/19
Projection Scenario (Base=1, Best=2, Weak=3)
1
Interest Rate
Current Stock Price
$60.0
Capital Structure Scenario
1
% of Total
Term (Years)
Cash PIK
$ Amount
EBITDA Exit Multiple
10.0x Term
85.0%
6
6.0%
$13,392.9 General Assumptions
Management Rollover
10.0%
Revolver
15.0%
4.0%
$2,363.4 Tax Rate
31.9%
Minimum Cash Balance
$500.0
Transaction Costs
Interest Rate on Cash Balance
1.5%
%
$ Amount
Transaction Fees (% of equity)
2.5%
Model is running:
Base Case
Projections
Management Participation
Model Checks
Base Case
Leverage Ratio
Management Rollover
$3,168.00
10.0%
Sources and uses balance
1.000 Cash to Shareholders
$28,512.00
90.0%
Balance sheet balances
1.000 New Management Equity
$200.0
Circuit Breaker (Off=1, On=0)
1
Transaction Summary: XX --Base Case Projections
Offer calculation
Sources
$ Amount
x LTM EBITDA
% of Total
Share price
$60.0
Cash (Less Minimum Balance)
$189.5
0.1x
0.5%
Purchase Price Premium
20.0%
Term
13,392.9
3.8x
36.9%
Offer price per share
$72.0
Revolver
2,363.4
0.7x
6.5%
Diluted shares outstanding
440
Total Debt
$15,756.3
4.5x
43.4%
Offer value
$31,680.0
Existing debt
3,671.2 Sponsor Equity
16,972.9
4.8x
46.8%
Preferred
222.7 Management Equity
200.0
0.1x
0.6%
Less: cash
689.5 Management Rollover
3,168.0
0.9x
8.7%
Transaction value
34,884.4 Total Sources
$36,286.7
10.4x
100.0%
Uses
$ Amount
x LTM EBITDA
% of Total
Equity Purchase Price
$28,512.0
8.1x 78.6%
Debt Retired
3,671.2
1.0x 10.1%
Purchase of Pref. Stock
222.7
0.1x 0.6%
Transaction Costs
712.8
0.2x 2.0%
Management Rollover
3,168.0
0.9x 8.7%
Total Uses
$36,286.7
10.4x 100.0%
Check
0.0 Goodwill Calculation
Common Equity
$1,188.2 Purchase Price
31,680.0 Goodwill $30,491.8
Income Statement: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
LTM TOS
Projected
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Total Revenues
$10,584.2
$11,396.9
$12,580.7
$13,889.1
$15,139.1
$16,198.8
$17,332.8
$18,372.7
$19,475.1
$20,643.6
$21,675.8
$22,759.6
COGS (excluding D&A)
4,416.0
4,762.4
5,000.0
5,242.2
5,524.8
5,830.5
6,152.0
6,429.2
6,815.0
7,223.9
7,585.1
7,964.4
SG&A
3,688.4
3,992.2
4,000.0
4,277.1
4,662.0
4,988.4
5,337.6
5,657.8
5,997.3
6,357.1
6,675.0
7,008.8
Other operating expenses
48.9
136.3
79.3
41.7
45.4
48.6
52.0
55.1
58.4
61.9
65.0
68.3
EBITDA
2,430.9
2,506.0
3,501.4
4,328.1
4,906.9
5,331.3
5,791.2
6,230.5
6,604.4
7,000.6
7,350.7
7,718.2
Depreciation & amortization
327.8
329.3
328.7
351.3
381.4
406.9
434.1
459.2
485.7
513.8
538.7
564.8
Operating profit - EBIT
2,103.1
2,176.7
3,172.7
3,976.8
4,525.5
4,924.5
5,357.1
5,771.4
6,118.7
6,486.8
6,812.0
7,153.4
Interest expense
119.7
136.0
158.7
835.8
701.8
551.3
385.5
216.3
67.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interest income
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
12.1
29.6
74.5
140.3
210.0
Pretax income
1,983.4
2,040.7
3,014.0
3,148.5
3,831.2
4,380.7
4,979.0
5,567.1
6,081.3
6,561.3
6,952.3
7,363.5
Taxes
645.6
670.6
850.0
1,004.4
1,222.1
1,397.4
1,588.3
1,775.9
1,939.9
2,093.0
2,217.8
2,348.9
Net Income
$1,337.8
$1,370.1
$2,164.0
$2,144.1
$2,609.0
$2,983.3
$3,390.7
$3,791.2
$4,141.4
$4,468.2
$4,734.5
$5,014.5
Income Statement Assumptions: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
Projected
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Revenue Growth
Current Case
7.7%
10.4%
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Base Case
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Best Case
11.4%
10.0%
8.0%
8.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Weak Case
9.4%
8.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
Revenue Growth Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Gross Profit Margin
Current Case
58.3%
58.2%
60.3%
62.3%
63.5%
64.0%
64.5%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
Base Case
62.3%
63.5%
64.0%
64.5%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
65.0%
Best Case
63.3%
64.5%
65.0%
65.5%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
66.0%
Weak Case
61.3%
62.5%
63.0%
63.5%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
64.0%
Gross Profit Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
SG&A Margin
Current Case
34.8%
35.0%
31.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
Base Case
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
30.8%
Best Case
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
Weak Case
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
31.8%
SG&A Delta
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Other operating expenses
0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Tax Rate
32.6% 32.9% 28.2% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9%
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Balance Sheet: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
LTM TOS
Closing
Closing Projected
2017
Dec-18
Adjustments
Dec-18
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and equivalents
$340.7
$689.5
-$189.50
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$1,112.7
$2,832.4
$7,094.8
$11,609.8
$16,393.1
Accounts receivable
1,309.4
1,523.2
1,523.2
1,681.6
1,833.0
1,961.3
2,098.6
2,224.5
2,357.9
2,499.4
2,624.4
2,755.6
Inventories
855.8
1,008.4
1,008.4
1,057.3
1,114.2
1,175.9
1,240.7
1,296.7
1,374.4
1,456.9
1,529.8
1,606.3
Other current assets
251.2
279.9
279.9
309.0
336.8
360.4
385.6
408.8
433.3
459.3
482.3
506.4
Equity in affiliates
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Non Current Assets
PP&E
2,544.1
2,696.1
2,696.1
2,848.0
3,013.5
3,190.6
3,380.1
3,580.9
3,793.9
4,019.6
4,256.5
4,505.4
Goodwill
1,845.7
2,081.8
30,491.8
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
32,573.6
Intangible assets
783.2
831.1
831.1
814.1
797.1
780.1
763.1
746.1
729.1
712.1
695.1
678.1
Other non-current assets
577.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
228.0
Total Assets
$8,507.1
$9,338.0
$30,302.3
$39,640.3
$40,011.5
$40,396.2
$40,769.8
$41,169.7
$42,171.2
$44,322.6
$49,043.7
$53,999.5
$59,246.4
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable
876.1 1,239.7 1,239.7 1,299.8 1,369.8 1,445.6 1,525.3 1,594.1 1,689.7 1,791.1 1,880.6 1,974.7 Taxes payable
215.5 161.5 161.5 190.8 232.2 265.5 301.8 337.4 368.6 397.7 421.4 446.3 Other current liabilities (non-debt)
1,123.2 1,317.1 1,317.1 1,454.1 1,584.9 1,695.9 1,814.6 1,923.5 2,038.9 2,161.2 2,269.3 2,382.7 Debt
Pre LBO Debt - Current portion of LTD
356.7 776.7 (776.7)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Pre LBO Debt - STD
171.5 174.1 (174.1)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Pre LBO Debt - LTD
2,918.0 2,720.4 (2,720.4)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – LBO Debt - Term A
13,392.9 13,392.9 11,160.7 8,928.6 6,696.4 4,464.3 2,232.1 – – – – LBO Debt - Revolving credit facility
2,363.4 2,363.4 2,596.3 2,361.8 1,764.2 770.8 – – – – – Deferred income taxes
554.7 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 309.9 Other non-current liabilities
941.3 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 1,227.7 Total Liabilities
7,157.0 7,927.1 12,085.1 20,012.2 18,239.3 16,014.9 13,405.3 10,414.4 7,624.7 5,634.8 5,887.6 6,108.9 6,341.3 EQUITY
Pre LBO preferred stock
253.7 222.7 (222.7)
0.0 – – – – – – – – – Common equity
1,096.4 1,188.2 18,439.9 19,628.1 21,772.2 24,381.3 27,364.5 30,755.3 34,546.5 38,687.8 43,156.1 47,890.6 52,905.1 Total Shareholders' Equity
1,350.1 1,410.9 18,217.2 19,628.1 21,772.2 24,381.3 27,364.5 30,755.3 34,546.5 38,687.8 43,156.1 47,890.6 52,905.1 Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
8,507.1 9,338.0 30,302.3 39,640.3 40,011.5 40,396.2 40,769.8 41,169.7 42,171.2 44,322.6 49,043.7 53,999.5 59,246.4 Balance check
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Balance Sheet Assumptions: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Accounts receivable growth
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Inventory growth
4.8%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
4.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Other current asset growth
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Accounts payable growth
4.8%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
4.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Taxes payable growth
18.2%
21.7%
14.3%
13.7%
11.8%
9.2%
7.9%
6.0%
5.9%
Other current liabilities growth
10.4%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Cash Flow Statement: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Net Income
$2,144.1 $2,609.0 $2,983.3 $3,390.7 $3,791.2 $4,141.4 $4,468.2 $4,734.5 $5,014.5 Non-Cash Adjustments
Depreciation & Amortization
351.3 381.4 406.9 434.1 459.2 485.7 513.8 538.7 564.8 Adjusted Net Income
2,495.4 2,990.4 3,390.1 3,824.9 4,250.4 4,627.1 4,982.0 5,273.2 5,579.3 Working Capital Source/(Use)
Changes in working capital assets
Accounts receivable
(158.4)
(151.3)
(128.3)
(137.3)
(125.9)
(133.5)
(141.5)
(125.0)
(131.2)
Inventories
(48.9)
(57.0)
(61.7)
(64.8)
(55.9)
(77.8)
(82.5)
(72.8)
(76.5)
Other current assets
(29.1)
(27.8)
(23.6)
(25.2)
(23.1)
(24.5)
(26.0)
(23.0)
(24.1)
Changes in working capital liabilities
Accounts payable
60.1 70.1 75.8 79.7 68.7 95.6 101.4 89.6 94.0 Taxes payable
29.3 41.4 33.3 36.3 35.6 31.2 29.1 23.7 24.9 Other current liabilities
137.0 130.9 110.9 118.7 108.9 115.4 122.3 108.1 113.5 Deferred income taxes
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from operations
2,485.4 2,996.5 3,396.6 3,832.2 4,258.7 4,633.5 4,984.9 5,273.7 5,579.9 Capital Expenditures
(486.1)
(529.9)
(567.0)
(606.6)
(643.0)
(681.6)
(722.5)
(758.7)
(796.6)
Cash from investing
(486.1)
(529.9)
(567.0)
(606.6)
(643.0)
(681.6)
(722.5)
(758.7)
(796.6)
Free cash flows prior to term loan amort.
1,999.3 2,466.7 2,829.7 3,225.5 3,615.7 3,951.9 4,262.4 4,515.1 4,783.3 Term
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flows prior to revolver
(232.9)
234.5 597.5 993.4 1,383.5 1,719.7 4,262.4 4,515.1 4,783.3 Revolver
232.9 (234.5)
(597.5)
(993.4)
(770.8)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net change in cash
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $612.7 $1,719.7 $4,262.4 $4,515.1 $4,783.3 Debt Paydown Schedule: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Term Beginning Balance
13,392.9 11,160.7 8,928.6 6,696.4 4,464.3 2,232.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mandatory Payments
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
(2,232.1)
0.0 0.0 0.0 Discretionary Payments
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
11,160.7 8,928.6 6,696.4 4,464.3 2,232.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revolver
Beginning Cash
500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 1,112.7 2,832.4 7,094.8 11,609.8 Plus: Free cash flows prior to revolver
(232.9)
234.5 597.5 993.4 1,383.5 1,719.7 4,262.4 4,515.1 4,783.3 Less: Minimum Cash Balance
500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 Cash Available (required) for Revolver and Cash
(232.9)
234.5 597.5 993.4 1,383.5 2,332.4 6,594.8 11,109.8 15,893.1 Beginning Balance
2,363.4 2,596.3 2,361.8 1,764.2 770.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ending Balance
2,596.3 2,361.8 1,764.2 770.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Expense Calculation: XX --Base Case Projections
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Term Average Balance
$12,276.8 $10,044.6 $7,812.5 $5,580.4 $3,348.2 $1,116.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Interest Rate (Cash)
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Interest Expense (Cash)
736.6 602.7 468.7 334.8 200.9 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revolver
Average Balance
2,479.9 2,479.0 2,063.0 1,267.5 385.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Rate (Cash)
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
Interest Expense (Cash)
99.2 99.2 82.5 50.7 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Expense
Cash Interest Expense
835.8 701.8 551.3 385.5 216.3 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Interest Expense
835.8 701.8 551.3 385.5 216.3 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Income
Cash Balance, Average
500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 806.3 1,972.5 4,963.6 9,352.3 14,001.5 Interest Rate
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Total Interest Income
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 12.1 29.6 74.5 140.3 210.0 Leverage Statistics
Projected
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Total debt 13,757.0 11,290.3 8,460.7 5,235.1 2,232.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA
4,328.1 4,906.9 5,331.3 5,791.2 6,230.5 6,604.4 7,000.6 7,350.7 7,718.2 Interest expense
835.8 701.8 551.3 385.5 216.3 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total debt / 3.2x
2.3x
1.6x
0.9x
0.4x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
EBITDA
EBITDA / Interest expense
5.2x
7.0x
9.7x
15.0x
28.8x
98.6x
nm
nm
nm
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Exit LBO Analysis: XX --Base Case Projections
Actual
Projected
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
EBITDA
$3,501.4 $4,328.1 $4,906.9 $5,331.3 $5,791.2 $6,230.5 $6,604.4 $7,000.6 $7,350.7 $7,718.2 Net Debt
13,257.0 10,790.3 7,960.7 4,735.1 1,119.5 (2,832.4)
(7,094.8)
(11,609.8)
(16,393.1)
Equity Allocation (Simple Assumptions)
Common Equity:
Management Performance Equity + Dilutive Securities
6%
Remaining Equity Allocation
Management Rollover
16%
Sponsor Equity
84%
100%
Exit Year Computations
EBITDA
$5,791.2
Enterprise Value
57,697.6
Less: Net Debt
4,735.1
Equity Value
52,962.5
Management Equity
3,177.8
Sponsor and Management Rollover Equity
49,784.8
Management Rollover
7,830.7
Sponsor Equity
41,954.0
Returns Calculations: XX --Base Case Projections
1/31/2019
12/31/2019
12/31/2020
12/31/2021
12/31/2022
12/31/2023
12/31/2024
12/31/2025
12/31/2026
12/31/2027
Financial Sponsors - Cash Inflows (Outflows)
-16,972.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
41,954.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IRR
26.0%
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$ millions 2018
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3,269
23,620
2019
2020 2021
2022
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4,002 3,572 4,351 3,939
24,197 26,007 26,677 28,611
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$93,428
4,617
28,571
Answer the following requirements with the following assumptions:
Assumptions
Terminal period growth rate
Discount rate (WACC)
Common shares outstanding
2%
7.63%
517.80 million
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Note: Complete the entire question in Excel and format each answer to two decimal places. Then enter the answers into the provided
spaces below with two decimal places.
Reported Forecast Horizon Period
Terminal
$
millions
2018
2019
Sales
$75,356
NOPAT
3,269
NOA
23,020
2020 2021
Period
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Discount rate (WACC)
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Question 1: In the table below, you are given the financial performance indicators forCari Farm
during the period 2018 to 2020.
田
Cari Farm
Industry
Performance Area
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2020
Leverage:
Assets/Equity
Debt/Equity (%)
Interest Coverage
0.81
1.21
0.92
1.00
1.20
1.15
101.3
81.5
81.6
73.0
77.0
81.0
1.63
2.78
2.04
4.00
3.50
3.30
Liquidity:
Current Ratio
1.22
1.49
1.45
2.00
1.70
1.50
Acid-test Ratio
1.10
1.30
1.20
1.00
0.90
0.90
Profitability:
Profit Margin (%)
11.77
15.58
10.81
15.60
15.71
15.80
Efficiency:
Revenue/Assets
0.47
0.49
0.50
0.60
0.62
0.68
Please use the table above to answer the following questions:
a. Discuss the trend analysis on how Cari Farm performed over the period for each ratio
category.
b. Report on how Cari Farm performed as compared to the industry norms for each ratio
category.
c. Calculate the return on assets (ROA) as a percent and the return on…
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Estimating Share Value Using the ROPI ModelFollowing are forecasts of Illinois Tool Works Inc. sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating assets (NOA) as of December 31, 2018.
Reported
Horizon Period
$ millions
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Terminal Period
Sales
$14,768
$15,654
$16,593
$17,589
$18,644
$19,017
NOPAT
2,711
2,880
3,053
3,236
3,430
3,499
NOA
9,462
10,028
10,630
11,268
11,944
12,183
Answer the following requirements assuming a discount rate (WACC) of 7.35%, a terminal period growth rate of 2%, common shares outstanding of 328.1 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $6,204 million.(a) Estimate the value of a share of ITW’s common stock using the residual operating income model (ROPI) model as of December 31, 2018.
Instructions:
Round all answers to the nearest whole number, except for discount factors, shares outstanding (do not round), and stock price per share.
Round discount factors to 5 decimal places.
Round stock…
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