Bonus Assignment - DCF Valuation - Start
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Toronto Metropolitan University *
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Course
631
Subject
Finance
Date
Feb 20, 2024
Type
xlsm
Pages
21
Uploaded by ElderWater15776
IGM Control Panel
Key Model Drivers:
Key Performance Indicators:
Year of Interest:
Sales Growth Rate
7.0%
Gross Profit Margin
23.0%
Net Profit Margin (NI/S)
Dividend Payout Ratio
25.0%
Asset Turnover (S/A)
Capital expenditures as % of sales
5.0%
Equity Multiplier (A/E)
Terminal Value Parameters
Return on Equity
WACC (stable period)
7.50%
Reinvestment Rate (K)
ROIC (stable period)
7.50%
Return on Invested Capital Growth Rate (stable period)
2.00%
Valuation as of: 9/30/2015
Enterprise Value
Less Net Debt
Equity Value
Shares Outstanding
Equity Value per Share
2016P
%
7.7%
%
103.4%
%
259.2%
%
20.7%
%
49.2%
%
12.5%
$mm
390,217.8 $mm
50,110.3 $mm
340,107.5 mm
1,600.0 $
212.57
Scenario Analysis
2
Scenario
1 Base Case + 10%
7.7%
25.3%
27.5%
2 Base Case
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
3 Base Case - 10%
6.3%
20.7%
22.5%
4 Sales Growth Rate - Low
6.3%
23.0%
25.0%
5 Gross Profit Margin - Low
7.0%
20.7%
25.0%
6 Dividend Payout Ratio - Low
7.0%
23.0%
22.5%
7 Capital expenditures as % of sales - Low
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
8 WACC (stable period) - Low
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
9 ROIC (stable period) - Low
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
10 Growth Rate (stable period) - Low
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
11 Sales Growth Rate - High
7.7%
23.0%
25.0%
12 Gross Profit Margin - High
7.0%
25.3%
25.0%
13 Dividend Payout Ratio - High
7.0%
23.0%
27.5%
14 Capital expenditures as % of sales - High
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
15 WACC (stable period) - High
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
16 ROIC (stable period) - High
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
17 Growth Rate (stable period) - High
7.0%
23.0%
25.0%
2 Base Case
7.00%
23.00%
25.00%
Output
Scenario
1 Base Case + 10%
0.079121 1.04096786 2.5939834
2 Base Case
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
3 Base Case - 10%
0.075405 1.02795613 2.5904584
4 Sales Growth Rate - Low
0.078002 1.02871407 2.5881212
5 Gross Profit Margin - Low
0.074696 1.03564389 2.6023538
6 Dividend Payout Ratio - Low
0.077276 1.03233744 2.5837646
7 Capital expenditures as % of sales - Low
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
8 WACC (stable period) - Low
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
Case Number:
Case Number
Sales Growth Rate
Gross Profit Margin
Dividend Payout Ratio
Case Number
Net Profit Margin (NI/S)
Asset Turnover (S/A)
Equity Multiplier (A/E)
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9 ROIC (stable period) - Low
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
10 Growth Rate (stable period) - Low
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
11 Sales Growth Rate - High
0.076559 1.04007482 2.5958179
12 Gross Profit Margin - High
0.079855 1.03315992 2.5816891
13 Dividend Payout Ratio - High
0.077276 1.03647164 2.6002567
14 Capital expenditures as % of sales - High
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
15 WACC (stable period) - High
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
16 ROIC (stable period) - High
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
17 Growth Rate (stable period) - High
0.077276 1.03440041 2.5919679
Incremental Downside and Upside Sensitivity Equity Value per Share
Parameter
Low-Base High-Base
Total Sales Growth Rate
0.011915 -0.0122157 0.0241308
Gross Profit Margin
-0.128467 0.13776024 0.2662275
Dividend Payout Ratio
-0.000529
0.0005291 0.0010581
Capital expenditures as % of sales
0.01076 -0.0107935 0.0215533
WACC (stable period)
0.152662 -0.1160233 0.2686856
ROIC (stable period)
-0.039065 0.03196235 0.0710274
Growth Rate (stable period)
-0.001896 0.00189581 0.0037916
Dividend Payout Ratio
Growth Rate Capital Expediture as % of Sales
Sales Growth Rate
ROIC
Gross Profit Margin
WACC
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
Tornado Diagram: Impact on Share
Low-Base
Hi
WACC (stable period)
5.5%
8.3%
8.3%
2.2%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
4.5%
6.8%
6.8%
1.8%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
4.5%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
6.8%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
6.8%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
1.8%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.5%
7.5%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
8.3%
7.5%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
8.3%
2.0%
5.0%
7.5%
7.5%
2.2%
5.00%
7.50%
7.50%
2.00%
Reinvestment Rate (K)
Equity Value
0.2136479669
0.553611269916539 0.127197775
396834.6981
346724.41006 216.70276
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
390217.7862
340107.49816 212.56719
0.2007950145
0.42868631623826 0.123042596
386165.4666
336055.17863 210.03449
0.2076745869
0.468257795149899 0.125805566
394270.2042
344159.91619 215.09995
0.2013142892
0.509725456218964 0.121548998
346525.1215
296414.83352 185.25927
0.2061182979
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
390037.8647
339927.5767 212.45474
0.2071859182
0.437377450902024 0.126013308
393877.292
343767.00398 214.85438
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
442139.3638
392029.07578 245.01817
Capital expenditures as % of sales
ROIC (stable period)
Growth Rate (stable period)
Return on Equity
Return on Invested Capital Enterprise Value
Equity Value per Share
Run All Scenarios
Set up Model for Given Case
Reset Model with Base Case Parameters
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
376931.4565
326821.16854 204.26323
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
389573.0084
339462.7204
212.1642
0.206696825
0.516684845843356 0.124489003
386063.142
335952.85399 209.97053
0.2129969507
0.476058011301776 0.128744331
437071.0778
386960.78982 241.85049
0.2082646558
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
390397.738
340287.44997 212.67966
0.2071859182
0.547450111195594 0.124289338
386546.8377
336436.54975 210.27284
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
350757.3872
300647.09918 187.90444
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
401088.4195
350978.13149 219.36133
0.2071859182
0.492413781048809 0.125145386
390862.5639
340752.27592 212.97017
Small
Parameter
Low-Base
High-Base
Match
Description
0.0010581162
1
-0.00052901
0.000529103
3 Dividend Pa
0.0037916116
2
-0.00189581
0.001895806
7 Growth Rate
0.0215533449
3
0.01075985 -0.010793495
4
Capital Exped
0.0241307888
4
0.011915109 -0.012215679
1 Sales Growt
0.0710274342
5 -0.03906509
0.031962345
6 ROIC
0.2662274628
6
-0.12846722
0.137760243
2 Gross Profit
0.2686855688
7 0.152662255 -0.116023314
5 WACC
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
e Price (Base Case: $212.57) igh-Base
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ayout Ratio
e diture as % of Sales
th Rate
t Margin
Inglis' Gold Mines
Company Name
Inglis' Gold Mines
Ticker IGM
Latest Fiscal year end date
6/30/2015
Income Statement
Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016
Sales
$mm
127,889.0 136,841.2 Cost of Goods Sold
$mm
102,311.2 105,380.5 Gross Profit
$mm
25,577.8 31,460.7 Selling, General and Admin
$mm
6,414.2 7,526.3 Operating Income Before Deprec. (EBITDA)
$mm
19,163.6 23,934.4 Depreciation
$mm
2,247.8 3,214.6 Operating Profit (EBIT)
$mm
16,915.8 20,719.8 Interest Income
$mm
834.2 393.5 Interest Expense
$mm
4,000.5 3,489.2 Pretax Income (EBT)
$mm
13,749.5 17,624.1 Income Tax
$mm
4,537.3 7,049.7 Net Income
$mm
9,212.2 10,574.5 Dividends
$mm
1,842.4 2,643.6 Additions to Retained Earnings
$mm
7,369.7 7,930.9 Number of shares Outstanding (million)
mm
1,600.0 1,600.0 Tax Rate
%
33.0%
40.0%
Balance Sheet
Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016
Assets
Required Operating Cash $mm
3,489.8 4,105.2 Excess Cash and Markatable Securities
$mm
16,183.2 9,877.0 Accounts Receivable
$mm
31,972.3 27,368.2 Inventory
$mm
21,104.1 25,291.3 Other Current Assets
$mm
1,230.1 1,368.4 Total Current Assets
$mm
73,979.5 68,010.2 Gross Plant, Property & Equipment
$mm
84,439.6 91,281.7 Accumulated Depreciation
$mm
23,786.9 27,001.5 Net Plant, Property & Equipment
$mm
60,652.7 64,280.2 Total Assets
$mm
134,632.2 132,290.4 Liabilities and Equity
Accounts Payable
$mm
21,741.1 18,968.5
Revolver (Short Term Debt)
$mm
0.0 0.0 Total Current Liabilities
$mm
21,741.1 18,968.5 Long Term Debt
$mm
69,783.3 62,283.3 Total Liabilities
$mm
91,524.4 81,251.8 Common Stock / Paid in Capital
$mm
31,260.0 31,260.0 Retained Earnings
$mm
11,847.7 19,778.6 Total Common Equity
$mm
43,107.7 51,038.6 Total Liabilities & Equity
$mm
134,632.2 132,290.4 Balance Check
0.0 0.0 Cash Flow Statement
Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016
Cash Flows from Operating Activities
Net Income
$mm
9,212.2 10,574.5 Add Depreciation Expense
$mm
2,247.8 3,214.6 Less Increase in Operating Cash
$mm
39.9 615.4 Less Increase in Account Receivables
$mm
832.3 (4,604.0)
Less Increase in Inventories
$mm
(3,694.8)
4,187.2 Less Increase in Other Current Assets
$mm
0.0 138.3 Add Increase in Accounts Payable
$mm
(1,925.2)
(2,772.6)
Total Cash Flows from Operations
$mm
12,357.3 10,679.5 Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Less Capital Expenditures
$mm
4,300.0 6,842.1 Total Cash Flows from Investing
$mm
4,300.0 6,842.1 Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Add Issuance/(Repayment) of Revolver
$mm
0.0 0.0 Add Issuance/(Repayment) of Long-Term Debt
$mm
7,500.0 (7,500.0)
Add Issuance/(Repayment) of Equity
$mm
0.0 0.0 Less Cash Dividends Paid to Shareholders
$mm
1,842.4 2,643.6 Total Cash Flows from Financing $mm
5,657.6 (10,143.6)
Net Change in Excess Cash and Markatable Securities
$mm
13,714.9 (6,306.2)
Beginning Excess Cash and Marketable Securities
$mm
2,468.3 16,183.2 Net Change in Excess Cash and Markatable Securities
$mm
13,714.9 (6,306.2)
Ending Excess Cash and Marketable Securities
$mm
16,183.2 9,877.0 Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016
Investment Module
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Required Investments
Increase in Operating Cash
$mm
39.9 615.4 Increase in Accounts Receivable
$mm
832.3 (4,604.0)
Increase in Inventory
$mm
(3,694.8)
4,187.2 Increase in Other Current Assets
$mm
0.0 138.3 Increase in Total Current Assets
$mm
(2,822.6)
337.0 CapEx (i.e. Increase in Fixed Assets)
$mm
4,300.0 6,842.1 Total Requied Investment in Assets
$mm
1,477.5 7,179.0 Financing Module
Spontaneous Financing
Increase in Accounts Payable
$mm
(1,925.2)
(2,772.6)
Total Spontaneous Financing
$mm
(1,925.2)
(2,772.6)
Internal Financing
Net Income
$mm
9,212.2 10,574.5 Add Depreciation
$mm
2,247.8 3,214.6 Less Minimum Dividends
$mm
1,842.4 2,643.6 Total Internal Financing
$mm
9,617.5 11,145.5 Total Spontaneous and Internal Financing
7,692.3 8,372.8 Required Financing
(6,214.9)
(1,193.8)
Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016
Increase in Long Term Debt (Exogenously determined)
$mm
(7,500.0)
Increase in Equity (Exogenousy determined)
$mm
0.0 Required Financing after accounting for LTD and Equity
$mm
6,306.2 Model Plugs: Revolver and Excess Cash & Mar. Sec.
Excess Cash & Mar. Sec.
Excess Cash & Mar. Sec Beginning of Period
$mm
16,183.2 Less Required Financing after LTD and Equity
$mm
6,306.2 Excess Cash and Mar. Sec. Available to Paydown Revolver
$mm
9,877.0 Revolver
Beginning of period
$mm
0.0 Less min(Cash Available, Revolver (BOP))
$mm
0.0 End of period
$mm
0.0 0.0 Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016
Ratios
Net Profit Margin (NI/S)
%
7.20%
7.73%
Asset Turnover (S/A)
%
0.95
1.03
Equity Multiplier (A/E)
%
3.12
2.59
Return on Equity
%
21.37%
20.72%
Reinvestment Rate (K)
%
9.84%
49.24%
Return on Invested Capital %
12.51%
2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P Forecast 6/30/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
Factor
Comment
146,420.1 156,669.5 167,636.4 179,370.9 7% % growth
107,723.5 109,072.6 109,092.2 107,361.6 38,696.7 47,596.9 58,544.2 72,009.3 23.0%
% of Sales
8,053.1 8,616.8 9,220.0 9,865.4 5.5%
% of Sales
30,643.5 38,980.1 49,324.2 62,143.9 3,406.8 3,614.3 3,837.9 4,078.7 5.3%
of last year's Net Plant, Property and Equipm
27,236.7 35,365.8 45,486.3 58,065.2 279.6 227.9 244.6 347.9 2.0%
Rate earned on last year's Required Cash an
3,114.2 2,739.2 2,364.2 1,989.2 5.0%
Rate paid on last year's Revolver and LTD
24,402.2 32,854.5 43,366.7 56,423.9 9,760.9 13,141.8 17,346.7 22,569.6 40.0%
% of EBT, but never negative
14,641.3 19,712.7 26,020.0 33,854.4 3,660.3 4,928.2 6,505.0 8,463.6 25.0%
% of Net Income, but is never negative
10,981.0 14,784.5 19,515.0 25,390.8 1,600.0 1,600.0 1,600.0 1,600.0 1600
Assume no change
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P Forecast 6/30/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
Factor
4,392.6 4,700.1 5,029.1 5,381.1 3.0%
% of Sales
7,004.3 7,528.9 12,366.7 22,655.2 Plug
29,284.0 31,333.9 33,527.3 35,874.2 20.0%
% of Sales
25,853.6 26,177.4 26,182.1 25,766.8 24.0%
% of COGS
1,464.2 1,566.7 1,676.4 1,793.7 1.0%
% of Sales
67,998.8 71,307.0 78,781.6 91,471.1 98,602.7 106,436.1 114,818.0 123,786.5 5.0%
CapEx as % of Sales
30,408.3 34,022.6 37,860.6 41,939.3 68,194.3 72,413.5 76,957.4 81,847.2 136,193.1 143,720.5 155,739.0 173,318.3 19,390.2 19,633.1 19,636.6 19,325.1 18.0%
% of COGS
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0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug
19,390.2 19,633.1 19,636.6 19,325.1 54,783.3 47,283.3 39,783.3 32,283.3 (7,500.0)
Decreases by $7500 each year according to
74,173.5 66,916.4 59,419.9 51,608.4 31,260.0 31,260.0 31,260.0 31,260.0 Remains Constant
30,759.6 45,544.1 65,059.1 90,449.9 62,019.6 76,804.1 96,319.1 121,709.9 136,193.1 143,720.5 155,739.0 173,318.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
6/30/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
14,641.3 19,712.7 26,020.0 33,854.4 3,406.8 3,614.3 3,837.9 4,078.7 287.4 307.5 329.0 352.0 1,915.8 2,049.9 2,193.4 2,346.9 562.3 323.8 4.7 (415.3)
95.8 102.5 109.7 117.3 421.7 242.9 3.5 (311.5)
15,608.6 20,786.2 27,224.7 35,220.6 7,321.0 7,833.5 8,381.8 8,968.5 7,321.0 7,833.5 8,381.8 8,968.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,660.3 4,928.2 6,505.0 8,463.6 (11,160.3)
(12,428.2)
(14,005.0)
(15,963.6)
(2,872.7)
524.6 4,837.9 10,288.5 9,877.0 7,004.3 7,528.9 12,366.7 (2,872.7)
524.6 4,837.9 10,288.5 7,004.3 7,528.9 12,366.7 22,655.2 2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
6/30/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
287.4 307.5 329.0 352.0 1,915.8 2,049.9 2,193.4 2,346.9 562.3 323.8 4.7 (415.3)
95.8 102.5 109.7 117.3 2,861.2 2,783.7 2,636.7 2,400.9 7,321.0 7,833.5 8,381.8 8,968.5 10,182.2 10,617.1 11,018.6 11,369.5 421.7 242.9 3.5 (311.5)
421.7 242.9 3.5 (311.5)
14,641.3 19,712.7 26,020.0 33,854.4 3,406.8 3,614.3 3,837.9 4,078.7 3,660.3 4,928.2 6,505.0 8,463.6 14,387.8 18,398.8 23,352.9 29,469.5 14,809.6 18,641.7 23,356.4 29,158.0 (4,627.3)
(8,024.6)
(12,337.9)
(17,788.5)
2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
6/30/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,872.7 (524.6)
(4,837.9)
(10,288.5)
9,877.0 7,004.3 7,528.9 12,366.7 2,872.7 (524.6)
(4,837.9)
(10,288.5)
7,004.3 7,528.9 12,366.7 22,655.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
6/30/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
10.00%
12.58%
15.52%
18.87%
1.08
1.09
1.08
1.03
2.20
1.87
1.62
1.42
23.61%
25.67%
27.01%
27.82%
37.12%
30.41%
25.09%
20.81%
15.50%
18.97%
22.99%
27.66%
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ment
nd Excess Cash and Markatable Securities
o debt contracts.
Inglis' Gold Mines
Company Name
Inglis' Gold Mines
Ticker IGM
Latest Fiscal year end date
6/30/2015
Valuation Date
9/30/2015
Circuit Breaker
Assumptions
1) Changing Capital Structure across the 5 explicit forecast years
2) Book Value of Debt
3) Book Value of Equity
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
2021P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016 6/30/2017 6/30/2018 6/30/2019 6/30/2020
6/30/2021
Cost of Debt
Before Tax Required Return on Debt
%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Tax Rate
%
33%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
After Tax Rquired Return on Debt
%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Cost of Equity
Risk Free Interst Rate
%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
10-year US T-Bond yield
Market Risk Premium
%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
Average of [ long term geometric return on S&P500, Implied Rate on S&P500]
beta (unlevered)
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.15
1.10
Assumed beta of the unlevered firm (i.e. beta of assets)
Net Debt
$mm
50,110.3 48,301.1 43,386.4 35,054.4 22,387.5 4,246.9 Book Value
Equity Value
$mm
43,107.7 51,038.6 62,019.6 76,804.1 96,319.1 121,709.9 Book Value
Debt / Equity Ratio
%
1.16 0.95 0.70 0.46 0.23 0.03 Using book
beta (levered)
2.13
1.88
1.70
1.53
1.31
1.12 b(L) = b(U)(1+D/E(1-T))
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
%
13.7%
12.3%
11.4%
10.4%
9.2%
8.2%
r = rf+b(L)(rm-rf)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Net Debt Weight (% of total)
%
53.8%
48.6%
41.2%
31.3%
18.9%
3.4% Debt/(Debt+Equity)
Equity Weight (% ot total)
%
46.2%
51.4%
58.8%
68.7%
81.1%
96.6% Equity/(Debt+Equity)
WACC
%
8.15%
7.80%
7.92%
8.09%
8.04%
8.00%
Debt Weight*After-Tax Cost of Debt+ Equity Weight*Required Return on Equity
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Fiscal year
2015A
2016P
2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
2021P
Fiscal year end date
Units
6/30/2015
6/30/2016 6/30/2017 6/30/2018 6/30/2019 6/30/2020
6/30/2021
Free Cash Flow to Firm
EBIT
16,915.8
20,719.8
27,236.7
35,365.8
45,486.3
58,065.2
Tax Rate
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
EBIT(1-T)
11,333.6
12,431.9
16,342.0
21,219.5
27,291.8
34,839.1
NOPLAT
11,333.6
12,431.9
16,342.0
21,219.5
27,291.8
34,839.1
% growth
Add Depreciation Expense
2,247.8
3,214.6
3,406.8
3,614.3
3,837.9
4,078.7
Gross Cash Flow
13581.39
15646.49
19748.87
24833.76
31129.67
38917.85
Less Increase in Account Receivables
832.35
-4604.004 1915.77722 2049.88163 2193.37334 2346.90947
Less Increase in Inventories
-3694.8
4187.22864 562.302355 323.802671 4.70001283 -415.346665
Less Increase in Other Current Assets
0
138.3123
95.788861 102.494081 109.668667 117.345474
Add Increase in Accounts Payable
-1925.194
-2772.63352 421.726766 242.852003 3.52500962 -311.509999
Increase in Non-Cash Working Capital
-937.256
2494.17046 2152.14167 2233.32637 2304.21701 2360.41828
Less CapEx
4300
6842.0615 7321.00581 7833.47621 8381.81955 8968.54691
Total Capital Investments
4300
6842.0615 7321.00581 7833.47621 8381.81955 8968.54691
Total Reinvestment in Firm
3362.744
9336.23196 9473.14747 10066.8026 10686.0366 11328.9652
Reinvestment Rate (K)
9.84%
49.24%
37.12%
30.41%
25.09%
20.81%
Return on Invested Capital 12.51%
15.50%
18.97%
22.99%
27.66%
Free Cash Flow to Firm
10218.64
6310.26
10275.72
14766.95
20443.63
27588.89
27588.89
% growth
-38.25%
62.84%
43.71%
38.44%
34.95%
Financing Cash Flows
Increase in Cash and Markatable Securities
$ mm
13,754.8 (5,690.8)
(2,585.3)
832.0 5,166.9 10,640.5 Less After Tax Interest Income (Int. Inc. (1-Tc))
$ mm
558.9 236.1 167.8 136.8 146.7 208.7 Add After Tax Interest Expense (Int. Exp. (1-Tc))
$ mm
2,680.3 2,093.5 1,868.5 1,643.5 1,418.5 1,193.5 Less Net New Debt
$ mm
7,500.0 (7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
(7,500.0)
Add Dividends
$ mm
1,842.4 2,643.6 3,660.3 4,928.2 6,505.0 8,463.6 Less Net New Shares
$ mm
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Financing Cash Flows
$ mm
10,218.6 6,310.3 10,275.7 14,767.0 20,443.6 27,588.9
Fiscal year
Valuation Date
2016P
2017P
2018P
2019P
2020P
2021P
Fiscal year end date
Units
9/30/2015
6/30/2016 6/30/2017 6/30/2018 6/30/2019 6/30/2020
6/30/2021
Valuation
Discount Period
years
0.000
0.750
1.750
2.750
3.750
4.750
Length of each period
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
FCFF
6,310.3 10,275.7 14,767.0 20,443.6 27,588.9 26,059.7 Enterprise Value (End of Period)
$mm
390,217.8 407,538.5 429,061.4 448,297.4 464,103.3 473,811.9 Assumptions
Assumed Growth Rate of NOPLAT in Continuing Value Period
%
2.00%
Assumed ROIC
%
7.50%
WACC
%
7.50%
Implied Reinvestment Rate
%
26.7%
Normalized Cash Flows
NOPLAT in last Forecast Period, t
$mm
34,839.1 Normalized FCFF in last Forecast Period, t
$mm
25,548.7 NOPLAT (t+1)
$mm
35535.9 Normalized FCFF in first continuing value Period, t+1
$mm
26,059.7 Net Debt
Revolver
$mm
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Debt
$mm
69,783.3 62,283.3 54,783.3 47,283.3 39,783.3 32,283.3 Less Required Operating Cash
$mm
3,489.8 4,105.2 4,392.6 4,700.1 5,029.1 5,381.1 Less Excess Cash and Marketable Securities
$mm
16,183.2 9,877.0 7,004.3 7,528.9 12,366.7 22,655.2 Net Debt
$mm
50,110.3 48,301.1 43,386.4 35,054.4 22,387.5 4,246.9 Equity Value
Enterprise Value
$mm
390,217.8 407,538.5 429,061.4 448,297.4 464,103.3 473,811.9 Less Net Debt
$mm
50,110.3 48,301.1 43,386.4 35,054.4 22,387.5 4,246.9 Equity Value
$mm
340,107.5 359,237.5 385,675.0 413,243.0 441,715.9 469,565.0 Shares Outstanding
mm
1600
1600
1600
1600
1600
1600
Equity Value per Share
$
212.57 224.52 241.05 258.28 276.07 293.48
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Consider the table given below to answer the following question.
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Earnings
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Asset growth rate
Earnings growth rate
1
9.00
1.44
1.44
0.00
0.16
0.16
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8
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22.30 24.53
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0.145
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Assuming that competition drives down profitability (on existing assets as well as new investment) to 15.5% in year 6, 15% in
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Year
Net investment
Free cash flow
Return on equity
Asset growth rate
Earnings growth rate
Present value
1
12.00
1.44
1.44
0.00
0.12
0.12
2
13.44
1.61
1.61
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.12
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15.05
1.81
1.81
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2.02
1.52
0.51
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20.03
2.30
1.80
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21.83
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1.31
1.09
0.11
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23.14
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1.39
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1.96
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10
26.00
2.08
1.56
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1
4
5
6
7
8
9
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11.00
3.07 3.35
2.51
2.74
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12.65 14.55 16.73 18.74 20.99 23.50 25.62 27.93 30.44
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