3E03_Final_20191__1_.pdf

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Student Name: Student Number: Economics 3E03 Applied Econometrics DAY CLASS Youngki Shin DURATION: 2.5 HOURS MCMASTER UNIVERSITY FINAL EXAMINATION DECEMBER 2019 THIS EXAMINATION PAPER INCLUDES 10 PAGES (includes the cover page) AND 4 BIG QUESTIONS (Part A - Part D). YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENSURING THAT YOUR COPY OF THE PAPER IS COMPLETE. BRING ANY DISCREPANCY TO THE ATTENTION OF YOUR INVIGILATOR. Special Instructions: Write all your answers on the exam papers . 8.5 x 11, double sided. Use of Casio FX-991 MS or MS Plus calculator only is allowed. The total marks are 100 and the marks for each question are denoted in the parentheses. Page 1 of 10
Student Name: Student Number: Part A. (30, 3 marks each) Answer the following questions. 1. When there are omitted variables in the regression, which are determinants of the dependent variable, then: (a) you cannot measure the e ect of the omitted variable, but the estimator of your included variable(s) is (are) una ected. (b) this has no e ect on the estimator of your included variable because the other variable is not included. (c) this will always bias the OLS estimator of the included variable. (d) the OLS estimator is biased if the omitted variable is correlated with the included vari- able. 2. If you wanted to test, using a 5% significance level, whether or not a specific slope coe ffi cient is equal to one, then you should: (a) subtract 1 from the estimated coe ffi cient, divide the di erence by the standard error, and check if the resulting ratio is larger than 1.96. (b) add and subtract 1.96 from the slope and check if that interval includes 1. (c) see if the slope coe ffi cient is between 0.95 and 1.05. (d) check if the adjusted R 2 is close to 1. 3. When there are two coe ffi cients, the resulting confidence sets are: (a) rectangles. (b) ellipses. (c) squares. (d) trapezoids. 4. Simultaneous causality bias: (a) is also called sample selection bias. (b) happens in complicated systems of equations called block recursive systems. (c) arises in a regression of Y on X when, in addition to the causal link of interest from X to Y , there is a causal link from Y to X . (d) results in biased estimators if there is heteroskedasticity in the error term. 5. A survey of earnings contains an unusually high fraction of individuals who state their weekly earnings in 100s, such as 300, 400, 500, etc. This is an example of: (a) errors-in-variables bias. (b) sample selection bias. (c) simultaneous causality bias. (d) companies that typically bargain with workers in 100s of dollars. Page 2 of 10 ~ W w v 8. ~ D
Student Name: Student Number: 6. The interpretation of the slope coe ffi cient in the model Y i = β 0 + β 1 log( X i ) + u i is as follows: (a) a change in X by one unit is associated with a β 1 · 100% change in Y . (b) a change in X by one unit is associated with a β 1 change in Y . (c) a 1% change in X is associated with a β 1 % change in Y . (d) a 1% change in X is associated with a change in Y of 0 . 01 · β 1 . 7. In a prediction problem, there are: (a) specific regressors of interest. (b) control variables. (c) predictors and the variable to be predicted. (d) never situations where OLS overfits data as long as there are a large number of regressors relative to the number of observations. 8. Consider the following regression model: TestScore = β 0 + β 1 inc + β 2 inc 2 + u where inc denotes income. You have variables, testscore , inc , and incsq in the data set. Write the R command to run estimate the above nonlinear regression function. If you have been using a software di erent from R, write the name of the software (e.g. STATA, Matlab, Python) and write the relevant commands of the software. 9. Consider the following regression model: log( Wage ) = β 0 + β 1 Educ + u where Educ is years of education. We can think individual ability as an omitted variable. When we omit ability, will the estimated value of β 1 be higher (overestimated) or lower (underestimated) than the true e ect of education on wage? 10. Suppose that you have 1,000 candidate predictors. If you believe that only few predictors are relevant, which methods will you choose between ridge and lasso? Page 3 of 10 ch8 - - v - overestimated
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Student Name: Student Number: Part B. (20) In this question, we investigate the relationship between rent rates and the student population in a college town. Using some data, we get the following estimation results: log( rent ) = β 0 + β 1 log( pop ) + β 2 log( avginc ) + β 3 pctstu + u where rent is the average monthly rent, pop is the total city population, avginc is the average city income, and pctstu is the student population as a percentage of the total population. 1. (5) Write the null hypothesis that size of the student body relative to the population has no ceteris paribus e ect on monthly rent. Write the alternative hypothesis that there is an e ect. 2. (5) We estimate the model with data and get the following results: log( rent ) = . 043 + . 066 log( pop ) + . 507 log( avginc ) + . 0056 pctstu + u ( . 844) ( . 039) ( . 081) ( . 0017) n = 64 , R 2 = . 458 Test the null hypothesis stated in (a) at 1% significance level. (Hint: the critical value of the t-test for 1% level is 2.58). Page 4 of 10 => - - Ho: B3 = 0 Ha:3 FO 0.0056 - 0 t = 0.0017 t = 3.29> 2.58 reject Ho &99%
Student Name: Student Number: 3. (5) According to the estimation results in (b), what percentage points of rent will increase as pctstu increases by 1 percentage point. 4. (5) What is wrong with the statement: “A 10% increase in population is associated with about a 6.6% increase in rent”? Page 5 of 10 , = 0.0056 Bot B,log(pop) + Beloglangina) + by (1.01) - Bo + B,log(pop) + Brlog(avginc) + B3(2) = Bs (patstu (1.01-2) ( 0.0056% =By patstr (001) Y = 0.066 AX/X AYY = 0.1x0.066: 0.0066 =% -> correct statement: 10% increase in log (population) is equal to a 0.66% of log(ment).
Student Name: Student Number: Part C. (30) In the following model, we study the tradeo between time spent sleeping and working and to look at other factors a ecting sleep: sleep = β 0 + β 1 totwrk + β 2 educ + β 3 age + u where sleep and totwrk (total work) are measured in minutes per week and educ and age are measured in years. 1. (5) Jake thinks that educ and age do not have any e ect on sleeping time. Write the null hypothesis to test his idea. 2. (5) What is the R command to test the above hypothesis? Complete the necessary package name and the final command for the F-test. If you have been using a software di erent from R, write the name of the software (e.g. STATA, Matlab, Python) and write the relevant commands of the software. library(lmtest) library(sandwich) library( ) sleep.m = lm(sleep ~totwrt + educ + age) (Command for F-test here) Page 6 of 10 - Ho: =0 and : 0 Ha: either B20 or B30 or both
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Student Name: Student Number: 3. (5) We estimate the model and get the following results: [ sleep = 3628 . 25 - 0 . 148 · totwrk - 11 . 13 · educ + 2 . 20 · age (115 . 60) (0 . 019) (5 . 81) (1 . 44) n = 143 , R 2 = 0 . 0395 Mike has worked 1 more hour this week. What is the expected change in his sleeping time? Note that both sleep and totwrk are measured in minutes per week 4. (5) Jake is 42 years old. He has 16 years of education and works 40 hours per week. What is the expected sleeping time of Jake per week. Page 7 of 10 - minutes - Asleep = -0.148460 = - 8.88 sleep falls by 8.88 minutes minutes - Seep: 3628.25-0.148x60 x 40 - 11.13 x 16 + 2.20 x 42 =7.37 minutes per week
Student Name: Student Number: 5. (5) The F-statistic in Question 2 turns out to be 4.38. Can you reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level? What about 1% significance level? Large-sample Critical Values for the F-statistic Significance Level Degrees of Freedom 10% 5% 1% 1 2.71 3.84 6.63 2 2.30 3.00 4.61 3 2.08 2.60 3.78 4 1.94 2.37 3.32 6. (5) The variable totwrk contains some measurement error: totwrk = totwrk + w where, totwrk is the true value and w independent of totwork has a mean zero. Is the OLS estimator biased? If yes, can you tell the direction of the bias? Page 8 of 10 -- I regressors since we are testing: Ho:B2 = 0 gd B3 = 0 + 2 4.38 < 4.62 + do not reject & 1% 4.38) 3.00 + reject &5% level. --- ous as band; =-
Student Name: Student Number: Part D. (20) A researcher is interested in predicting average test scores for elementary schools in Arizona. She collects data on three variables from 200 schools: average test scores ( TestScore ) on a standardized test, the fraction of students who qualify for reduced-priced meals ( RPM ), and the average years of teaching experience for the school’s teachers ( TExp ). The table below shows the sample means and standard deviations from her sample. Variable Sample Mean Sample Standard Deviation TestSchore 750.1 65.9 RPM 0.60 0.28 TExp 13.2 3.8 After standardizing RPM and TExp and subtracting the sample mean from TestScore , she estimates the following regression: \ TestScore = - 48 . 7 · RPM + 8 . 7 · TExp, SER = 44 . 0 1. (5) You want to predict average test scores for an out-of-sample school with RPM = 0 . 52 and TExp = 11 . 1. Compute the standardized values of RPM and TExp for this school. Recall that a random variable X is standardized as mean 0 and variance 1 if we compute X = ( X - E ( X )) /sd ( X ). 2. (5) Compute the predicted value of average test scores for the school in Question 1 . (Hint: The model subtracts the sample mean of TestScore ). Page 9 of 10 did'nt do !
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Student Name: Student Number: 3. (5) The actual average test score for the school is 775.3. Compute the error for your prediction. 4. (5) The regression shown above was estimated using the standardized regressors and the demeaned value of TestScore . Suppose the regression had been estimated using the raw data for TestScore , RMP , and TExp . Calculate the values of the regression intercept and slope coe ffi cients for this regression. THE END Page 10 of 10