Walton_Multiple_Inputs_Complete_ (1)

Simulation of Walton's Bookstore with multiple inputs Demand distribution - all triangular Supply distribution Demand @ reg price Demand @ sale price Minimum 125 0 100 0 0 0 Most likely 200 1.6 175 1 50 2.67 Maximum 250 0 300 0 75 0 125 200 250 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Supply Distribution 100 175 300 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Regular Demand Distribution 0 50 75 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Sale Demand Distribution A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Simulation of Walton's Bookstore with multiple inputs Cost data Demand distribution - all triangular Unit cost 1 $7.50 Supply distribution Demand @ reg price Demand @ sale price Unit cost 2 $7.25 Minimum 125 100 0 Regular price $10.00 Most likely 200 175 50 Sale price $5.00 Maximum 250 300 75 Decision variable Order quantity 200 Cost Qty Left over Sale Demand Sale revenue Profit 0.927 229 200 $1,500.00 0.611 201 $2,000.00 0 0.211 28 $0.00 $500.00 Random Number 1 Supplier's Ability Supply Received Random Number 2 Demand at regular price Revenue at Reg Price Random Number 3 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Bin Start Bin End Demand 4 <= Based on plotting 50 points on the graph 101 105 10 105 109 16 109 113 27 113 117 39 117 121 61 121 125 72 125 129 87 129 133 94 133 137 94 137 141 125 141 145 108 145 149 130 149 153 125 153 157 170 157 161 141 161 165 166 165 169 182 169 173 161 173 177 204 177 181 173 181 185 191 185 189 197 189 193 161 193 197 150 197 201 171 201 205 179 205 209 147 209 213 171 213 217 141 217 221 107 221 225 122 225 229 101 229 233 111 233 237 95 237 241 96 241 245 84 245 249 82 249 253 92 253 257 62 257 261 57 261 265 56 265 269 58 269 273 46 273 277 34 277 281 27 281 285 22 285 289 27 289 293 19 293 297 9 297 301 0 301 305 0 101 11 7 133 149 165 0 50 100 150 200 250 Generate Frequency

305 309 0 309 313 0 313 317 0 317 321 0 5000

Summary statistics of profit Multiple Notes Average $ 395.45 Median $ 442.75 Standard Deviation $ 145.95 95th percentile $ 528.00 VaR@5% $ 65.00 Minimum $ (285.00) Minimum can be an extreme number Maximum $ 547.25 Maximum is also an extreme number % losses 3%

Bin Start Bin End Profit 17 <= Based on plotting 50 points on the graph -285 -268 4 -268 -251 4 -251 -234 2 -234 -217 4 -217 -200 6 -200 -183 6 -183 -166 7 -166 -149 11 -149 -132 10 -132 -115 11 -115 -98 9 -98 -81 10 -81 -64 9 -64 -47 14 -47 -30 19 -30 -13 22 -13 4 16 4 21 31 21 38 15 38 55 28 55 72 19 72 89 28 89 106 27 106 123 32 123 140 34 140 157 37 157 174 38 174 191 51 191 208 33 208 225 53 225 242 56 242 259 68 259 276 94 276 293 67 293 310 104 310 327 92 327 344 106 344 361 134 361 378 163 378 395 234 395 412 218 412 429 320 429 446 329 446 463 300 463 480 302 480 497 293 497 514 1070 514 531 259 531 548 201 548 565 0 565 582 0 -285 -217 -149 -81 -13 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Dist Frequency