Practice Midterm 1 Sketch Solutions

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ECON455

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Feb 20, 2024

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University of British Columbia Vancouver School of Economics Econ 455 International Trade Professor Réka Juhász email: reka.juhasz@ubc.ca Winter 2024 Practice Midterm – Sketch Solutions General instructions: You have 75 minutes to complete this exam. Answer all questions. Make sure you give a detailed explanation for your answer to each question. Focus on the economic intuition. Correct answers lacking sufficient explanation will only be given partial credit. 1. What is the gravity relationship in trade? Is there empirical support for this effect? (15 marks) Sketch answer: The gravity relationship in trade predicts that all else equal, countries that are larger (in economic size) and countries that are closer to one another will trade more. This relationship holds very strongly in the data. It is robust to the sample of countries and time period, as well as the econometric technique used to estimate the relationship. In fact, Disdier and Head (2008) show that the estimated effect of trade on distance is fairly consistent over time. 2. Trade to GDP increased particularly rapidly in the period 1986-2008. What factors can account for this? (15 marks) Sketch answer: It seems like the information communication technology revolution may have a large role to play. This is the period in which ICT was being developed and where we also observe the fragmentation of the value chain. As ICT makes it easier to organize the supply chain across international borders, the two are likely related. 3. In the standard two good Ricardian model, a country that has an absolute advantage in producing both goods will have a higher wage than its trading partner in free trade equilibrium. Explain the economic intuition behind this result. (Your answer should be around 5 sentences in length and you do not need to derive the result.) (15 marks) Sketch answer: In the Ricardian model, wages are equal to the marginal product of labor. If wages were equal across the two countries, there would be no demand for labor in the unproductive country, given that its unit labor requireemnts of production in both goods are higher. Given labor is inelastically supplied in the Ricardian model, this means there is excess supply of labor in the unproductive country, leading to a decline in wages so the labor market can clear. 4. The production technologies of Vietnam (V) and France (F) are specified by the unit labor requirements for cloth (C) and wine (W) production as shown below. Cloth Wine Vietnam 2 3 France 1 2 Suppose there are 300 units of labor in Vietnam and 300 units of labor in France ( L = 300 , and L = 300 ). Production is constant returns to scale, all markets are perfectly competitive, labor is immobile across countries, but fully mobile across sectors. Set the price of wine, p W , to 1 throughout. Answer the following questions. 1
University of British Columbia Vancouver School of Economics Econ 455 International Trade Professor Réka Juhász email: reka.juhasz@ubc.ca Winter 2024 a) Suppose both countries trade freely, and the market clearing relative price of cloth in terms of wine is p C p W = 1 2 . Which country produces which good(s) (specialization pattern) and which good is exported by each country? (15 marks) Sketch answer: opportunity cost of cloth in France is 1/2, and in Vietnam it is 2/3. Thus, France has a comparative advantage in cloth production, as it needs to give up fewer units of wine to produce one unit of cloth. At a relative cloth price of 1/2, France is incompletely specialized as the price is equal to oppor- tunity cost. For Vietnam, the price of cloth is too low to warrant production, it only produces wine. France exports cloth in exchange for Vietnamese wine. b) Draw the world relative supply and demand curves (with p C p W on the vertical axis and C + C W + W on the horizontal axis). Assume consumer preferences can be represented by a Cobb-Douglas utility function so that the world relative demand curve is downward sloping and crosses the world relative supply curve at the stated free-trade price ratio ( p C p W = 1 2 ). (10 marks) Sketch: RS curve as follows. C + C W + W = 0 up to a price of 1/2. At a price of 1/2, RS is horizontal from C + C W + W = 0 to C + C W + W = 3 . Between price of 1/2 and 2/3, C + C W + W = 3 . At a price of 2/3, RS is horizontal from 3 to infinity. RD intersects RS at price 1/2 and is downward sloping. c) Suppose technological progress in wine production techniques lowers the unit labor requirement to 1 in Vietnam. Depict the new equilibrium on the same graph. You will not be able to find the new equilibrium price with only the information provided here, but you can give a range in which it must lie. What is that range? Why does the free trade price move in this direction? (15 marks) Sketch: New opportunity cost of cloth production in Vietnam is 2. RS curve as follows. C + C W + W = 0 up to a price of 1/2. At a price of 1/2, RS is horizontal from C + C W + W = 0 to C + C W + W = 1 . Between price of 1/2 and 2, C + C W + W = 1 . At a price of 2, RS is horizontal from 1 to infinity. RD intersects RS at p C p W 1 2 . Price of cloth weakly rises as productivity growth in wine in Vietnam has increased the relative world supply of wine, making cloth scarcer and driving up its relative price. d) Leave the unit labor requirements as they were originally in the table provided at the beginning of the question. Suppose instead that an aging population lowers the population in France to L = 200 . Using a graph, show which direction the free trade price p C p W will move in this case. Explain why productivity growth in wine production in Vietnam and shrinking population in France have a similar effect on the free trade price of cloth. (15 marks) Sketch: A shrinking population in France will decrease the relative world supply of cloth, and hence (weakly) drive up its price. The two effects are similar, because both decrease the relative supply of cloth – part c) by increasing the supply of wine and part d) by decreasing the supply of cloth. 2
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