2237Assignment1OPM400VerC 2 (1)

Student Name: Abdullah Mowslay Student Number 149597205 Q 1 Week Demand SMA WMA WMA 1 6520 3-Period .6, .3, .1 .4,.3,.2,.1 2 6360 3 6480 4 6605 6481.7 6543 5 6530 6538.3 6547.5 5241.5 6 5995 6376.7 6216.5 5017.5 7 6320 6281.7 6243.5 4979.5 8 6207 6174.0 6219.7 4978.3 9 6140 6222.3 6178.1 4950.1 10 6250 6199.0 6212.7 4962.7 11 6380 6256.7 6317 5041 12 6310 6313.3 6325 5063 Q2 For each of the forecasts and demand below, calculate the Mean Absolu Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percent Error. Use the ABS formula for Absolute Value. NOTE: Use formulas for each ca Round each answer to one decimal place. A product has a consistent year round demand. You are the planner an with some time series analysis. Using this previous weekly demand, ca period possible. A) Three - Period Simple moving average B) 3 Period W of .6, .3,.1, C) Four-period weighted moving average with weights of .4 forecast using an Alpha of .25 and a Week 1 forecast of 6200 units. Ro By submitting this assignment you acknowledge you will not give or receive any unautho work will be your own. The college's definition of cheating is: obtaining or attempting to obtain, or aiding anoth work or improvement in evaluation of performance, by dishonest or deceptive means. You agree to abide by Seneca's Academic Integrity Policy and you understand any violati will be subject to the penalties outlined in the policy. In order to get graded for each question, you must use form your calculations. Insert your answers in the shaded areas

MAD Week Demand Forecast Error (e) Abs e 1 1850 1800 50.0 50.0 2 1805 1800 5.0 5.0 3 1930 1800 130.0 130.0 4 1985 1900 85.0 85.0 5 1925 1900 25.0 25.0 6 1990 1900 90.0 90.0 MAD 64.2 MSE MAPE Q3 A. Period Demand Naïve Method Error (e) MAD 1 780 Abs e 2 760 3 825 4 860 825.0 35.0 35.0 5 905 860.0 45.0 45.0 6 830 905.0 -75.0 75.0 7 720 830.0 -110.0 110.0 8 765 720.0 45.0 45.0 9 815 765.0 50.0 50.0 10 805 815.0 -10.0 10.0 11 760 805.0 -45.0 45.0 12 725 760.0 -35.0 35.0 MAD 50.0 Below is the actual demand for electrical boxes for Abco Electric for the the Mean Absolute Deviation for this forecast. B) Complete an addition average of your choice. Change the title to describe your method. C) C below put your comment comparing the accuracy of your forecast vers Why or why not? Use whole numbers for all forecasts. Use ONE decima D . Your comment on Forecast Accuracy:

EXP Sm .25 6200 6240 6300 6376.3 6414.7 6309.8 6312.3 Grading Out of Your score Comments 6286.0 Q1 5 6249.5 Q2 6 6249.6 Q3 7 6282.2 Q4 4 6289.2 ute Deviation, alculation. nd have been tasked with experimenting alculate the following forecasts for each Weighted moving average using weights 4,.3,.2,.1 and D) Exponential Smoothing ound all forecasts to whole numbers . orized help, and that all her to obtain, credit for tions of academic integrity mulas for all of indicated.

MSE MAPE e^2 Abs e/D 2,500 2.7% 25 0.3% 16,900 6.7% 7,225 4.3% 625 1.3% 8,100 4.5% 5,895.8 3.30% B. C. MSE Your MAD Abs e 1,225.0 4.07% 2,025.0 4.97% 5,625.0 9.04% 12,100.0 15.28% 2,025.0 5.88% 2,500.0 6.13% 100.0 1.24% 2,025.0 5.92% 1,225.0 4.83% 6.37% e last twelve periods along with a forecast. A) Complete nal forecast for periods 4-12 using a weighted moving Calculate the MAD for your forecast. D) In the text box sus the one given in A. Was your method more accurate? al place for the MAD calculations.