HW_Turkey Earthquake

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Cumberland University *

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GEOG 32

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Astronomy

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Dec 6, 2023

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EES 0836 Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood Introduction You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist, your goal is to address key questions, including: ● Where do earthquakes occur? ● Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event? ● What should we be planning for next? Learning Objectives ● Analyze past events to forecast where future events occur. (1, 2, 5, a, b, c) ● Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes. (1, 2, 5, a) Part 1: Forecasting earthquakes We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our ability to forecast when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists. 1. What are some methods for forecasting earthquakes? While it is extremely difficult to get precise information on imminent earthquakes, we can track seismic activity and precursor events and map the chance of an earthquake in certain locations. 2. Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future? Explain your thinking. Using each of the strategies is, in my opinion, the most promising. All of these are necessary to gather the most data possible to improve predictions because it is so difficult to predict earthquakes with any degree of accuracy.

EES 0836 Part 2 : The data People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events. These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity, we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to forecast the location of future events. Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us visualize the information more effectively. Data Set 1: Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1967 -410 / -330 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1957 -335 / -305 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1951 -195 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1944 -305 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1943 -130 / 140 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1942 155 / 185 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1939 95 / 440 Historical Account + Geo mapping How to Plot: Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these coordinates along with their years. Accuracy matters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to erase. ● Locate the approximate year on the Y axis. ● Then put a dot where the left coordinate is located and another where the right coordinate is located. ● Connect the dots for that event. ● 1967’s earthquake is completed for you. ● After plotting the data, answer the following questions.

EES 0836 Questions: 1. How often do earthquakes occur in the same location? Over the years, the earthquakes appear to be in the same places. 2. Can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur? I think the next earthquake will happen close to Istanbul. 3. Explain why. If you can identify a possible location for this event, where do you forecast it will occur? I selected that location because, based on plotting the earthquakes, they appear to be moving to the left as the years go by. They are also pretty to close to one another. I think around the -500 and -450 mark there will be another earthquake. 4. How would you explain to the people living in the area you identified that they need to be earthquake ready? I would warn them that there's a good chance there will be an earthquake. I would suggest that they take the best possible precautions to stay safe from the earthquake.

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EES 0836 Part 3 : Oh, wait, there is one more event... You might have noticed that the most recent earthquake from the table was over 50 years ago. Let’s look at one of those events. Plot this event on the same table as Part 2. Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1999 -460 / -280 Historical Account + Geo mapping Questions: 1. Did this event fit into your forecast from Part 2? Explain how. It was close to what I predicted in the last question. It kind fits into my forecast because I predicted that would be around -500 or -450, but I didn’t think the distance would be that long. 2. Using this new information, can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur? I forecast the next one to be -510/-380 3. At which point did you think you had enough data to make this forecast? Explain your thinking. When I was done plotting and saw the whole picture was when I think I had enough data to make the forecast. 4. If you were a government official tasked with public safety, what steps might you suggest to the people living in Istanbul? I believe that emphasizing earthquake safety and putting a strong emphasis on planning is crucial. To help the locals better understand the safety of their neighborhood, I would concentrate on trying to prepare buildings throughout the city. 5. Explain how this pattern makes sense in terms of plate tectonics theory. Along a fault line is where the earthquakes take place. According to the idea of plate tectonics, there are moving plates in the earth's crust that can cause natural disasters. All these earthquakes happened near a significant fault line, supporting the theory that plate tectonics is to blame for their occurrence.

HW_Turkey Earthquake

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