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Apr 3, 2024
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Discussion Summary Assignment 1 Rafay Akhtar (20942459)
Course Material Discussion - Week 2
Answer posted:
Jan 17, 2024, 2:36 PM
Questions addressed:
1.
Discuss the two examples of feedbacks that you came up with.
2.
Find and share other stock/flow/feedback simulations that might help you and your classmates understand these concepts.
Description of discussion:
Participants in this discussion thread provided feedback loop examples to highlight important ideas. Amber Kay Farrell highlighted amplifying feedback through social media engagement and stabilizing feedback in the regulation of body temperature. Examples of amplifying feedback, such as forest fires, and stabilising feedback, such as osmoregulation, were provided by Ava Mcclure. Furthermore, the participants provided a range of examples that demonstrated how feedback concepts may be applied in different systems, from viral trends to population management to clotting of blood. To help with learning, a variety of resources were given. These included PBS interactive courses and LOOPY, a modelling tool for stock, flow, and feedback simulations. The group discussion enhanced our understanding of feedback loops and highlighted their importance in intricate systems.
My Post:
Amplifying feedback example: Population
An amplifying feedback loop in a population happens when initial reproduction increases the number of people, which in turn increases the opportunity for additional reproduction. A self-
reinforcing loop is created when more organisms reproduce, increasing population growth. The population keeps growing because greater reproduction is made possible by the larger population. Under the right circumstances, this positive feedback loop can lead to exponential population expansion. It's important to understand, though, that real-world issues, including scarce resources, environmental limitations, and competition for food and space, can eventually impose restraints and introduce counterbalancing feedback processes that eventually regulate and
stabilize population increase.
Stabilizing feedback example: Predator-prey interactions
Predator-prey interactions in an ecosystem provide a prominent illustration of a stabilizing (negative) feedback loop. Imagine a situation in which the number of prey, like rabbits, rises. There is more food available for predators like foxes when the population of prey increases. Predator populations can flourish because there is more prey available. Predation, on the other hand, increases as the predator population increases and puts more strain on the prey population. Eventually, fewer prey are available due to the increasing rate of predation. The predator population will drop as a result of a lack of food when there is less prey accessible. Predator
populations are under less strain as a result of this decrease, which helps the prey population recover. With time, the numbers of prey and predators balance one another out, and the cycle repeats. Predator and prey are kept in a sustainable equilibrium by this stabilizing feedback loop, which keeps neither population from growing to unsustainable proportions.
Other stock/flow/feedback simulations that might help you and your classmates understand these
concepts:
https://medium.com/better-systems/systems-thinking-part-2-stocks-flows-and-feedback-loops-
b27eadfc200#:~:text=For%20example%2C%20when%20the%20water,out%20of%20that
%20same%20stock.
The website above explains the whole concept of stock/flow and feedbacks very well. It gives an
example of the water in a bathtub being the stock, which is another great example.
Critical analysis:
The answers to the questions about feedback loops are often instructive and include the examples of how feedback loops in populations and predator-prey relationships may be amplified and stabilised. The topics are clearly illustrated by the clear examples provided. A deeper examination of the possible uses and effects of these feedback loops, meanwhile, would strengthen the study. For example, the text mentions resource scarcity and the amplifying feedback loop of population expansion, but it might improve the analysis by delving deeper into the consequences for the actual world and considering the possibility of population collapse in specific scenarios. Like this, the explanation of the stabilising feedback loop in predator-prey interactions is good, but the critical analysis may benefit from additional focus on how these dynamics affect ecosystem stability or how human activities could upset these natural cycles. A more direct integration of certain findings from the resource might improve the answer, even though the suggested link is a useful resource as well. The study of feedback loops in stock/flow systems would be improved overall if particular examples or applications from the given link were included. This would show a deeper interaction with external sources.
Course Material Discussion - Week 3
Answer posted: Jan 25, 2024 7:40 PM
Question addressed:
Share strategies for understanding the various components of the Milankovitch cycles. Find and post simulations, videos, or images that helped it all make sense to you.
Description of discussion:
Different techniques are offered in the subject of comprehending Milankovitch cycles. While Ava Mcclure's parallels offer striking visualisations, Amber Kay Farrell presents the key cycles. Using a well-rounded approach, Grace Marie Passmore highlights interaction and provides a NASA link. Analogies like yarn ball winders and sand pendulums are cleverly used by Elizabeth Sue-Muy Jung. Using dynamic resources, Hajra Ijaz highlights the value of multimedia. An all-encompassing comprehension is aided by the group tactics, comparisons, and outside resources. An atmosphere that fosters collaboration and insight is created via the use of simulations, films, and images exchanged during discussions to enhance the learning process.
My post:
Think of Milankovitch cycles as a dance that the Sun, Moon, and Earth have created. Each dancer in this ballet has a unique function to play, influencing the long-term fluctuations in Earth's temperature. Now let's dissect the analogy:
Earth's Orbit (Eccentricity):The Earth's orbit around the Sun may be compared to a dancer's journey on a stage. This is because of its eccentricity. There are moments when the orbit is more circular, like a beautiful waltz. At other points, it gets longer and more elliptical, like a tango with lots of energy. The orbit's eccentricity affects the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth at various periods, which has an impact on the planet's temperature overall.
axial tilt (obliquity): Imagine the axial tilt of the Earth as the body tilt of a dancer. The Earth's axial tilt changes with time, just like a performer might stand more erect or lean slightly to one side. Because of how this tilt influences how sunlight is distributed throughout the seasons, there is a climatic rhythm that varies with the tilt.
precession: Think of Earth's precession like a dancer's steady, elegant spin. The Earth's axis eventually completes a round rotation, like to a dance routine spin. The Earth's axis is reoriented by this precession, which affects the seasons and the amount of sunlight received by each hemisphere at certain times of the year.
These three Milankovitch cycles come together to create an enthralling dance. The general tone of the dance is established by eccentricity. The beautiful tilts and inclinations are determined by obliquity, while the graceful spins and rotations are a result of axial precession. When combined,
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these cycles provide a captivating show that affects Earth's climate patterns over long time spans,
akin to a cosmic dance that develops gradually over geological time scales.
the image above show how the whole thing works. NASA's website can also help:
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-
climate/#:~:text=The%20Milankovitch%20cycles%20include%3A,is%20pointed%2C
%20known%20as%20precession.
Critical analysis:
The answer cleverly uses a dancing analogy to make the difficult Milankovitch cycles easier to understand. By comparing Earth's orbit to a dance routine, where eccentricity determines the overall tone, obliquity represents elegant tilts, and precession mirrors steady spins, the comparison successfully breaks down each component. This metaphor offers a concrete and approachable framework for comprehending theoretical ideas in the sky. The answer may be improved, though, by going more deeply into the constraints or difficulties presented by the dancing comparison and pointing out any possible oversimplifications or places in which it might fall short. Beyond the previously shown picture and NASA link, the addition of
certain simulations or visual aids might bolster the analysis even more by demonstrating useful resources that promote comprehension. Although the answer offers a unique and captivating strategy, A more thorough review might benefit from a more rigorous look at any potential drawbacks and the incorporation of more multimedia resources.
Course Material Discussion - Week 4
Answer posted:
Feb 2, 2024, 12:53 PM
Question addressed:
Share your impressions, questions, and thoughts about Do the Math—The Movie.
Check out Global Carbon Atlas. If you learned something surprising, bring it to the attention of your classmates.
Description of discussion:
The conversation topic is on takeaways and revelations after viewing
"Do the Math—The Movie" and looking through the Global Carbon Atlas. As they discuss the film, participants stress the importance of the three crucial figures—2 degrees Celsius, 565 gigatons, and 2795 gigatons—which show how serious climate change is and how difficult it is to handle. They also talk about unexpected results from the Global Carbon Atlas, namely the sharp rise in CO2 levels and national differences in fossil fuel emissions. Concern over the pressing need for coordinated action to confront the climate catastrophe is reflected in the atmosphere.
My post:
1. "Do the math- The Movie" left a very positive and interesting impression on me. The movie sent out a very positive message that was debating/fighting for the safety and security of our home planet. "Do the Math" shows how important it was for the main political forces to come to an agreement that capped carbon emissions at 565 gigatons and established an upper limit on temperature increases of 2 degrees Celsius. Even with this widespread agreement, the movie raises questions about going above safe limits—especially considering that fossil fuel reserves contain an astounding 2795 gigatons of carbon. In order to demonstrate the gravity of the problem, the documentary presents statistics in a numerical manner that appeals to viewers and highlights how urgent it is to confront climate change. The story also explores the difficulty of spurring global action, raising the question of whether tough numerical targets promote compliance or have the reverse impact, making people less concerned. The film shows how little progress has been made towards a sustainable future compared to the established targets.
2. One surprising thing I learned from the Global Carbon Atlas is that Iraq has the third highest amount of gas flaring on the planet even though its population and size is significantly smaller than the other top 6 countries on the list.
Critical analysis:
My review of "Do the Math—The Movie" effectively highlighted the good aspects of the movie and emphasised the pressing need for international action to combat climate change. The statistical presentation, which addressed the agreed-upon carbon emission cap and questioned the
effectiveness of rigorous objectives, effectively communicated the seriousness of the problem. To
strengthen its arguments, the post may benefit from specific examples as well as a more thorough
examination of any apparent flaws in the documentary.
Regarding the Global Carbon Atlas, it was a smart comment to draw attention to Iraq's remarkably high gas flaring given its lower size and population. Additional clarification of the consequences of Iraq's position and a link to more general climate change concerns would improve this understanding. A more thorough understanding would be possible if the shocking data is connected to the larger picture of worldwide carbon emissions. In conclusion, further precision and nuanced investigation would enhance the critical evaluation as a whole, even though the analysis successfully communicated favourable impressions and unexpected revelations.
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